NFL Teaser Picks Week 11: Best NFL teaser bets, odds and strategies this week
Some of the most popular types of NFL bets include the classic straight bet, a parlay, a player prop and a game total. However, have you heard of a teaser? It’s like a parlay in the sense that you’re combining 2 teams, but you get to change the spread or total in your favor. At most sportsbooks, a 2-team, 6-point teaser will have odds of -120; if it doesn’t, be sure to shop around for the best price.
Let’s get into this week’s best NFL teaser, but make sure you check out our NFL Week 11 picks on the side and total for every game this week with our experts up +49.3 units this season!
NFL Teaser Strategies
There is a certain strategy when putting your teaser together. That includes being aware of the key numbers: 3, 6 and 7. Those are the most common winning margins in an NFL game. So, when taking a teaser, you ideally want to be lower than 3 and higher than 7. For example, if a heavy favorite is -8.5 on the spread, I can tease them down 6 points through all 3 key numbers to -2.5. That’s an excellent teaser choice since the team can now win by 3, 6 and 7 and the teaser would win.
On the other side, taking an underdog through those key numbers is also just as valuable. If a team is a +1.5 underdog, you could tease them up 6 points to +7.5, and then that allows them to win or lose by the 3 key numbers and you would still win. There’s also the option to tease game totals in the NFL, but with how quickly and sporadic scores can happen, I tend to stay away from totals and stick to spreads. It can be fun hunting for the best teaser options each week, so let’s get into some of my teaser contenders for Week 11, and then my favorite teaser option for the Sunday.
Check out our NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
NFL Week 11 Teaser Options
My Week 10 teaser felt like theft in broad daylight. In all honesty, it couldn’t have been easier. I teased the Vikings and Texans to above a touchdown, and neither team needed the extra points, or points in general, because both underdogs won outright. But perhaps the best part is that all 5 of my favorite teaser legs from Week 10 won! So whether you tailed my top 2 or all 5, you won big. Heading into Week 11, I’ve won 3 straight teasers. So, who’s ready for this weekend?
- Lions -1.5 (from -7.5)
- Vikings +8.5 (from +2.5)
- Eagles +8.5 (from +2.5)
- Steelers +7.5 (from +1.5)
- Cowboys -4.5 (from -10.5)
Last week, I went on and on about how I’m all in on Josh Dobbs and the Vikings. Well, do you believe me now? In Dobbs’ first start for the Vikings, he led Minnesota to a 27-19 win in a game in which the Saints never seemed that close. Dobbs has had a seamless transition into the Vikings offense, and everything seems to be clicking for Minnesota at the right time. Plus, the Vikings’ defense has been fantastic in the last few weeks. But for the entire Week 11 slate – the Lions are my favorite teaser leg. Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite over the Bears on Sunday, which seems rather low to me, in a game that they should dominate. And being able to grab the Lions to win by less than a field goal? Sign me up.
As for the Eagles, it’s a Super Bowl rematch as they head to Kansas City for Sunday Night Football. I’m expecting this game to be close, and so are the oddsmakers since the spread is less than a field goal in favor of the Chiefs. But teasing Philadelphia’s spread north of a touchdown is an opportunity I can’t pass up. A little ways away in Cleveland is a defensive showdown between the Steelers and Browns, and I’m anticipating a very, very low-scoring game. Because of that, I’ll happily back the Steelers by more than a touchdown since this game should finish close to a 14-10 score.
My final teaser candidate for Week 11 is pretty simple. The Cowboys travel to North Carolina to take on Bryce Young and the Panthers… and that’s about all the reasoning you need. Young has been atrocious in recent weeks, and Carolina still can’t decide on who should be calling the offensive plays. Getting the Cowboys to win by anything less than a touchdown is a gift.
Find out our NFL best bets for this week — our experts are 34-21 this season for +21.7 units!
NFL Week 11 Teaser Best Bet
For my Week 11 teaser best bet, it’s back to Josh Dobbs and a surging Lions squad.
It’s amazing how much one player can change a spread. If you’re wondering why the Lions are only 7.5-point favorites against the Bears, it’s because Justin Fields is expected to return from his thumb injury. If Tyson Bagent was still the quarterback, the spread would have easily been in the double digits. But even with Fields back, I’m not expecting a new Chicago offense. It’s still D’Onta Foreman leading the backfield and D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet being the primary receivers. Comparatively, the Lions just scored 41 points against the Chargers, and that offensive performance demonstrated how dangerous the Detroit offense is with David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown all healthy. I will likely be backing the Lions by their 7.5-point spread anyway, so count me in for a 1.5-point spread too.
The Denver Broncos have won 3 games in a row, and all of a sudden, they become the favorite. Admittedly, Russell Wilson has been impressive recently, but let’s look at his opponents. Last week, the Broncos beat a Bills defense that was severely undermanned. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes had the flu. And before that, they beat the Packers, and, well, Jordan Love isn’t good. I’m not sold on the Broncos yet, but I’m all in on Dobbs and the Vikings. Minnesota just scored 27 points on a good New Orleans defense, and being able to tease the Vikings to above a touchdown seems like a no-brainer with the way Dobbs is playing.
Read our full Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos predictions for Sunday Night Football