NFL Week 4 best bets and predictions from 5 of Pickswise's best experts: Commanders ground the Eagles
The 2023 NFL season is in full flow now, as we enter Week 4. It’s been a profitable season thus far on Pickswise, as our NFL picks went 11-5 on sides last week and we’re now 9-2-1 on primetime sides after the Lions comfortably beat the Packers on Thursday Night Football. It’s safe to say that our experts are red-hot right now, and that’s good news for you! We’ve asked each of our 5 NFL experts for their NFL Best Bet of the entire weekend slate, and have them all right here! Let’s get into it, but make sure you also read our NFL predictions for every Week 4 matchup.
LearLocks: Jaguars -3 over Falcons (-110)
This will be a battle of 2 teams that enter the game coming off a loss. The Jags have been somewhat disappointing so far this season, entering the game at 1-2 and off the back of being blown out by the lowly Texans. As for the Falcons, they had an awful offensive performance against the Lions and know that a bounce back is needed with the Saints sat at 3-0 in the NFC South. The benefit that the Jags will have in this early-morning game is that it will take place in their home away from home in London. Jacksonville play two games in London on back-to-back weeks and have played well overseas in the past, and I’m confident they can snap out of their funk here. With the expectations around this team before the start of the season, Trevor Lawrence should be laser-focused to steady the ship and take this team right back to the playoffs. The addition of Calvin Ridley in the offseason looks to have been a good one, with the receiver striking up instant chemistry with Lawrence.
As for the Falcons, they’ve been solid but have not been spectacular with Desmond Ridder under center. Ridder has struggled so far and Atlanta has been forced to be over-reliant on the run game. There will be a lot of pressure on Bijan Robinson to get going and I’m expecting the Jaguars defense to have him well scouted. I’m more confident about the Jaguars putting points on the board than the Falcons, and that should show on Sunday. Let’s wake up to a winner and take the Jags with confidence.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Bengals -2.5 over Titans (-110)
We’ve got a couple of 1-2 AFC teams that could each really use a win here as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Tennessee Titans. I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Cincy, but I like what I’ve seen from Tennessee even less. The Titans predictably can’t move the ball, and the decline we saw on offense last season seems to have only got worse in 2023. They haven’t been able to replace AJ Brown, and the offensive line can’t pass block, so it’s not like Ryan Tannehill has time to hit his underwhelming weapons anyway. Tannehill is averaging just 182.7 yards per game and has taken a whopping 13 sacks through the first 3 contests.
The Bengals started slowly, but that likely had more to do with Joe Burrow’s lingering calf injury than anything else. Burrow appears to be getting much closer to 100%, and the team bounced back in a big way in their most recent game with a win over the Rams. That gave them the positive momentum they needed, and now might be your last chance to buy low before they take off again. Tannehill has been dreadful, but perhaps more concerning for Titans fans is that Derrick Henry has been too. Henry is averaging just 3.2 yards per attempt, and rookie Tyjae Spears has been far more efficient on his limited touches. Tennessee’s secondary was shredded by Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson last week and Watson had really been struggling previously, so I’m not optimistic about their defense either.
Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans predictions
Chris Farley: Commanders +8.5 over Eagles (-110)
In his inaugural season as a starter, Washington QB Sam Howell won’t have an easy time on Sunday, but it would be hard to get any worse than what we saw from Howell in Week 3. The Buffalo Bills capitalized on 5 Washington turnovers, four of those coming from Howell, and yet the score was still relatively close (16-0) leading into the 4th quarter. A staggering 9 sacks didn’t help. Washington’s offense looked good in 2 prior performances, though. Howell threw for 501 yards, 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception against the Cardinals and Broncos, two formidable defenses. In maybe his best moment so far as a pro, Howell led an 18-point comeback to secure a Washington win against the latter.
Last Sunday was the Commanders’ most embarrassing home loss since December 8, 2013, so market perception on Washington is at an all-time low. Regardless, Washington won’t be intimidated by such a big favorite – not in a classic NFC East battle, and not after they beat the Eagles 32-21 last season in Philly. After such an abysmal performance in Week 3, expect a motivated Commanders squad to correct some flaws on offense and offer plenty of resistance on defense. This is too many points.
Be sure to check out our full Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
The Betting Queen: Chargers -5 over Raiders (-110)
This is an AFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders, and both teams coming into this matchup 1-2. The Chargers picked up their first win of the season in thrilling fashion at Minnesota last weekend, when Brandon Staley made a questionable call to go for it on fourth down inside his own 25-yard line. They went on to win on a game-ending interception in the endzone by Kenneth Murray, despite failing to convert that fourth down on the previous offensive drive. The Raiders, on the other hand, lost to the Steelers and were very sloppy on offense; Jimmy Garoppolo threw 3 interceptions.
This Los Angeles team is much better than what its record indicates. The Chargers boast one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert and they have weapons all around him to succeed. Their offense is averaging 28 points per game (fifth best in the league) compared to the Raiders, who average 15 points per game — the third worst in the league. These teams have the same record, but the Chargers’ explosive offense led by new coordinator Kellen Moore and will likely expose the Raiders’ secondary just like the Bills did in Week 2.
I know the Chargers’ defense has had a rough start to the year, but the Raiders’ offense hasn’t been making any noise, either. Josh Jacobs does not look like his old self from last season and Garoppolo has already thrown 6 interceptions through 3 games. Los Angeles’ should be able to beef up this Sunday and make big, turnover-forcing plays at the Raiders’ expense. I really do not expect this game to be close at all, so I’m laying the points with the Chargers to win comfortably.
Be sure to check out our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions
John Martin: Giants +1 over Seahawks (-110)
I get it. These don’t look like last year’s Giants. After two beatdowns against the class in competition – and an eke-out win against Arizona – the shine has very much come off the G-Men. But hear me out. For two of the first three games this season, Daniel Jones was without his stud left tackle, Andrew Thomas. He’s set to make his return on Monday night and this offense will look a whole lot different if he’s in the lineup. Jones just hasn’t had any time in the pocket in his absence, and it’s going to be hard for any quarterback in the NFL when that’s the case. They’re also tracking to get back their starting left guard Ben Bredeson, who missed last week’s game against San Francisco. Those are two much-needed boosts to a Giants offensive line that’s been ravaged this season. Star running back Saquon Barkley also logged a limited practice on Thursday, which is yet another encouraging sign, especially with a longer week.
Seattle’s output is probably also not as good as it looks on paper, considering they’re coming off a game against the Panthers in which the Carolina defense sustained some injuries in-game. It also wouldn’t surprise me if head coach Brian Daboll takes a bit more control of the playcalling given how delicate the situation is for his team. With the offense finally getting healthy and the Seahawks having to go coast-to-coast, this is a spot I really like for the Giants at home.
Be sure to check out our full Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants predictions