Ricky Dimon
It’s do-or-die time for the Los Angeles Clippers, as they trail the Denver Nuggets 3-2 heading into Game 6 of this Western Conference first-round playoff series on Thursday night. Los Angeles once led the best-of-7 set 2-1, but Denver has reeled off consecutive victories to put itself on the brink of the West semis. Can the Clippers stay alive, or will the Nuggets advance?
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 10:00 pm ET on TNT. Also be sure to check out our full Nuggets vs Clippers prediction.
Nuggets +6.5 (-106)
Over 212 (-114)
James Harden to score 25+ points (+240)
Parlay odds: +806
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Clippers veteran James Harden scoring his fair share of points would obviously work well with the over. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the Nuggets to cover. But even if Harden does play well, there is no reason why the visitors can’t be competitive. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Nuggets +6.5 (-106)
The general consensus was that the Clippers were the better team heading into this series (despite being the #5 seed to the Nuggets’ #4) but that has not been the case through 5 games. Denver was reeling in early April and even fired head coach Mike Malone, but the roster has gotten its act together under interim David Adelman. Adelman’s squad won 3 in a row to end the regular season and has since taken 3 of the first 5 contests against Los Angeles. The Nuggets were especially impressive on Tuesday, destroyig the Clips 131-115 behind 43 points from Jamal Murray. Nikola Jokic has predictably been awesome all series long, averaging a triple-double to the tune of 25.4 ppg, 12.8 rpg and 11.0 apg. I think L.A. can win this one and force a Game 7, but giving 6.5 points is too much.
Over 212 (-114)
The game total for the series opener was 224. Yes, that’s 12 points higher than Thursday’s quota for those counting? It can be explained, of course, as the 3 most recent point totals are 207, 200 and 200. Still, bringing it all the way down to 212 seems too steep. After all, we know these 2 teams can play high-scoring affairs against each other. Their 4 regular-season encounters produced 213, 248, 218 and 229 points before Game 5 got all the way up to 246. Murray has scored at least 21 points in 4 of the 5 playoff outings and Aaron Gordon has reached at least the 14-point mark on all 5 occasions (including 25-point and 23-point efforts). The firepower with those guys along with Harden and Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has me avoiding the under on a relatively low number.
James Harden to score 25+ points (+240)
Harden’s points over/under has come down by 3 since the start of the series to 20.5. Like the game total, now there is good value on the over. Not only is Over 20.5 a good play, but backing Harden to get to the 25-point mark all the way up at +240 also offers plenty of intrigue. After all, there should be significant volume for the veteran guard on Thursday. It’s a win-or-go-home situation, and that’s when any team’s best players have to take matters into their own hands. The Clippers have enjoyed success when Harden has done that in this series. He attempted a total of 31 shots from the field in L.A.’s 2 victories and 22 during an OT loss in Game 1. In those 3 games he went 24-for-53 (11-for-24 from 3). But in his team’s 2 most recent setbacks, Harden took 20 shots combined – and a mere 4 from downtown. He needs to get back to being his aggressive self.
