Filip Tomic
We’ve waited for this moment for a long time and it’s finally here – the two MVP candidates go head-to-head as the Nuggets and Thunder start their West semi-final series. Catch the tip-off at 9.30 pm ET on TNT, my Same Game Parlay is priced at +353 odds for the series opener.
Get predictions on the side and total for all NBA postseason games on our NBA Picks page, but now let’s get into my Nuggets vs Thunder SGP bet!
OKC Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Jalen Williams to Score 20+ Points (-184)
Nikola Jokic 2+ Made Threes (-164)
Same Game Parlay odds: +353
OKC Thunder -9.5 (-110)
For the third season in a row and fourth in 5 years, the Denver Nuggets successfully jumped over the first obstacle in the NBA playoffs by eliminating the Clippers in Game 7 on Saturday. And they don’t plan on stopping there. This team has way bigger goals in mind, but in order to achieve them it has to take on the team with the best record in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder. These 2 teams split the 4 regular-season meetings, while over the last 16 games head-to-head each team has 8 wins. Playing 7 games against the Clippers won’t do the Nuggets any favors fatigue wise.
In that 4-game regular-season series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posted averages of 30.3 points, 5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. Following a somewhat inefficient start to this postseason run, his efficiency went up in the last 2 games against Memphis in a sweep. Only the Cavs, Pacers and Celtics have a better offensive rating through the first round, while on defense the Thunder are ranked first — giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions. I could make a case for either team covering in Game 1. Denver did play 3 extra games and had to travel in between games a lot more than the Thunder did. I don’t like betting against the Nikola Jokic, especially not when he is a 9.5-point underdog. However, having won 72 of 86 games so far this year, I think SGA and company have shown they are capable of coming up big in games like these. I’m rolling with OKC.
Read our full Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Game 1 Predictions
Jalen Williams to Score 20+ Points (-184)
This is the moment of truth for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Jalen Williams in particular. After a flawless 68-14 SU regular season, the Thunder continued to dominate by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0 in Round 1. Williams was Mr. Reliable in that series scoring 20+ in every single game on an efficient 54.2% from the field. However, the degree of difficulty scoring wise goes up a level against the Nuggets, so I’m interested to see how Williams does in this series. During the regular season he averaged just under 20 points per game in 4 meetings on 46-39-73 shooting splits. We all know what we can expect from SGA who is likely going to get his 30+ points per game, but the others for Oklahoma City will be crucial in this series. One of the main reasons why the Thunder went out in the West Semis against Dallas last year was the lack of production by Williams. He had 20 points in just 2 of the 6 games played, far too little from your 2nd scoring option. Game 1 on Monday will show us if he and his teammates have learned from that experience.
Nikola Jokic 2+ Made Threes (-164)
The Game 7 win over the Clippers couldn’t gone better for the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic. The win was never in doubt as the Nuggets dominated in the 2nd half, Jokic didn’t exert himself too much in that game logging just 32 minutes while taking jus 14 shots. In 4 regular season meetings the Joker averaged a triple-double vs OKC scoring 24.5 points, grabbing 15.8 rebounds and dishing out 11.5 assists per game. Just like any other team in the NBA, I don’t believe the Thunder will have an answer for him in this series. In his last 10 games he’s knocking down almost 44% of his threes, which is quite impressive for a big man. He averaged exactly 2 threes per game in the series vs the Clippers on 45.2% efficiency, he’d be smart to step out to the perimeter and clear some space on the inside for the likes of Gordon, Murray and Christian Braun to attack. Yes, OKC did have the best three-point shooting defense this season, but we are talking about the 3-time MVP here. Jokic won’t be the one to disappoint on Monday.
