Luke Lindholm
Just 8 teams are remaining at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, and while one side of the bracket features 4 European squads, the other side has 2 Brazilian, 1 Saudi Arabian and 1 English club. The second quarterfinal matchup features Palmeiras taking on Chelsea, who both needed extra time to get past the Round of 16. The Brazilians took down Botafogo 1-0, while the Blues eliminated Benfica 4-1. I’ve posted a 20-8 record with my FIFA Club World Cup predictions thus far, and I’ll have more picks for every quarterfinal matchup. For Friday’s tilt, I’ve put together a Palmeiras vs Chelsea Same Game Parlay, which you can fade or follow at FanDuel Sportsbook. My SGP has +1088 odds, so you can turn a $10 bet into $108 if my picks all hit. Let’s dive in.
Pedro Neto Anytime Goalscorer (+390)
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals (-320)
Palmeiras +1.5 Goals (-430)
Palmeiras vs Chelsea Same Game Parlay odds: +1085
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Palmeiras vs Chelsea player props: Pedro Neto Anytime Goalscorer (+390)
My first pick for this game has the longest odds, but it’s hard to pass up on Pedro Neto finding the back of the net in this game. The Portuguese international scored the 3rd goal for Chelsea in their Round of 16 matchup against Benfica, extending his goal-scoring streak to 3 games. He’s found the back of the net in every game he’s appeared in at this tournament, and he’s just 1 of 3 players with 3 goals in 3 games. The Golden Boot race is still wide open, and Neto has a great chance of winning the award given Chelsea’s current path.
The Blues have the 2nd-shortest odds to reach the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and Neto’s performance will be a big factor if they want to advance. While he only had 3 goals during the EPL season, he’s been playing in a more central role during this tournament, which has paid dividends for manager Enzo Maresca. There are 6 Chelsea players with shorter goalscorer odds than Neto, which doesn’t add up to me, so I’ll back him to find the back of the net against Palmeiras as my first Same Game Parlay pick.
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Palmeiras vs Chelsea game props: 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals (-320)
The 2nd SGP pick I have for this game has much shorter odds, but I expect a low-scoring first half. I’ve discussed at length how teams tend to be more conservative in tournaments once we reach the knockout stage, and that was on full display for both these squads in their Round of 16 matchups. Both teams’ games were 0-0 at the half in their first knockout match, and there has only been 1 instance out of 8 games in which either squad has featured in a contest with more than 1 first-half goal. However, that was Chelsea’s 3-0 victory against Espérance de Tunis, and both goals came in stoppage time.
9 of Chelsea’s last 10 games saw fewer than 2 first-half goals, while 7 of Palmeiras’ last 10 contests entered the half with 1 goal or less. It’s worth noting that in 2 of the 3 games in which the Brazilian entered the half with 2+ goals on the scoreline, there were 4 goals scored in the first 12 minutes. I doubt this will happen again, as the Brazilian side will be extremely careful to kick off the game. Finally, the Blues only have 1 goal this tournament before the 34th minute, so I don’t foresee Maresca’s squad lighting the world on fire to kick off the game. Expect this game to enter halftime with 1 goal or less.
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Palmeiras vs Chelsea best bet: Palmeiras +1.5 Goals (-430)
The final Palmeiras vs Chelsea Same Game Parlay leg is for the Brazilians to win or lose by a single goal at the end of 90 minutes. The Brazilians have played extremely well at this tournament and are undefeated through 4 games. Additionally, they sit just 2 points behind Flamengo in the Brazilian league, and Flamengo took it to Chelsea, picking up all 3 points with a 3-1 victory over the Blues. They play a similar style to Palmeiras, and while I don’t expect this Brazilian squad to eliminate Chelsea, I do think we could get extra time in this one.
Palmeiras has been on a great run this season, as they’ve won or drawn 21 of their 23 matches. Additionally, they’ve only lost by 2+ goals in 7 of their last 68 matches dating back to last season. It’s safe to say that they tend to keep games close, and I can’t see that being different against Chelsea. Therefore, I’ll take on Palmeiras +1.5 as the final leg in my SGP to push the odds above 10-1!
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