Vedran Aracic
Despite OKC entering as heavy favorites to close it out in five, the Finals have turned into a true battle, with the series now tied after four games. The series now goes back to Oklahoma City, as both teams aim to grab hold of this series. After nailing both of my Game 4 player props, I’m ready for Game 5 tonight.
Here is a breakdown of my two favorite NBA Finals player props for Game 5 between the Thunder and Pacers:
Jalen Williams Under 1.5 Threes-Made (-115 at DraftKings)
*Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing*
I’m returning to Jalen Williams in this one, as it was an easy winner the last time we were on it. After only two attempts in Game 3, he had three in Game 4, but all three were, once again, very low-quality shots.
He scored 1 or fewer threes in five straight games against the Pacers, and over those five games, he attempted only 3.2 threes on average, which is significantly lower compared to his season average. When he attempts 2-5 threes, he is under this line in 39 out of the 56 games this season, which is close to 70%.
There’s a reason Williams hasn’t found much success from three in this series. The Pacers are one of the best teams at limiting above-the-break attempts, his go-to spot, while they also hold up well in transition and spot-up defense. (Graphic by PropsMadness)
Read even more Thunder vs Pacers Game 5 player props from our expert, who is +42.4 units this season!
A. Nesmith Over 15.5 Points and Rebounds (-120 at FanDuel)
*Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing*
Even though he fell short the last time we bet on him, we are now getting too good of a number to pass on this.
He’s cleared this line in three of the four games in this series, and the only time he didn’t was when he fouled out and saw limited minutes. In playoff games where he logs between 24 and 34 minutes, he has exceeded this line in 10 of 13 games, averaging 20 PR per 30 minutes of playing time.
What’s even more encouraging is that he hit this mark in the most recent game against OKC despite a rough shooting night, hitting just 2 of his 9 field goal attempts.
And when it comes to a matchup, despite being one of the top defensive teams in the league, OKC is actually a favorable spot for Nesmith. They allow the second-most rebounds to wings and the second-most corner threes, an area where Nesmith has scored 30% of his total playoff points.
When analyzing the data (PropsMadness graph below), in games where Haliburton played and Nesmith logged between 24–36 minutes with a usage rate between 12% and 24% (he had 17% or higher usage including four out of the five 4 against OKC), he hit the Over on 15.5 PR in 22 out of 26 games.
Get the best odds on our Aaron Nesmith prop bet with Fanatics Sportsbook, where new users can click here to sign up now to secure $300 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when they make their first $30 wager.
Check out our other expert’s Pacers vs Thunder Same Game Parlay for Monday’s Game 5 contest in Indiana at +409 odds
