PLL futures: Finding value after 2 weeks of Premier Lacrosse League action
It’s been an exciting start to the 2022 PLL season. Through the first few weeks, we’ve learned a great deal about certain teams while realizing just how little we know about others.
With the NLL championships extended another week and a slew of rookies making their PLL debut in Week 3, the only thing that’s clear is that this is still anyone’s season.
PLL trends to watch
The top two teams from last season, Chaos and Whipsnakes, are struggling to find offensive success. While they are within 1-2 goals of their 2021 offensive production, it’s easy to see that the Whips miss Zedd Williams (25 points in 2021) while the Chaos are missing more than 60 points with all of the players on the NLL’s Buffalo Bandits.
Another major trend to keep an eye on is goalie play. The top goalies from last season were Adam Ghitelman (Archers), Blaze Riorden (Chaos) and Tim Troutner (Redwoods). Those players are currently ranked 5th, 7th, and 9th respectively in save percentage. Meanwhile, the Waterdogs are playing Matt Deluca while they wait for Dillon Ward to finish his NLL season. No goalie in 2021 had a SAA (Scores Against Average) below 10.3, this season there are three: Jack Concannon (Atlas, 8.0), Sean Sconone (Chrome, 6.5), and Kyle Bernlohr (Whipsnakes, 9.1). It is no coincidence that these three teams are at the top of the standings.
2022 PLL overachievers
The Chrome are basically a new team this season. Their defense is healthy and JT Giles-Harris is an instant star, ultimately helping second year goalie Sean Sconone to lead the league in SAA, making them the best scoring defense in the league. The addition of Logan Wisnauskas and Brendan Nichtern at attack instantly brings the firepower they lacked in 2021. When it comes to the Chrome, hammer the under on any total below 22.
2022 PLL underperformers
Without question the Redwoods are this season’s most disappointing team. They have one of the top goalies and face-off specialists in the league yet both players are having a rough start. TD Ierlan is at 43% while Tim Troutner is at 31%. The offense is struggling to win their matchups and outside of Myles Jones, the midfield unit isn’t clicking. Jules Heningburg is playing well but is forced to move back and forth to help spell the injured Rob Pannell. The Notre Dame heavy defense isn’t as sharp as we’re accustomed to, allowing 14.5 SAA compared to 11.8 SAA in 2021.
PLL futures with value
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Chaos to win the championship (+600)
As mentioned earlier the Chaos are an easy target for ridicule because they don’t have the core of their team, but people often forget that the team was 4-5 when they clinched the last playoff spot in 2021. Even if they are 0-3 after this weekend, they will finally have Josh Byrne, Dhane Smith, Chris Cloutier and Tehoka Nanticoke amongst others for Week 4. I wouldn’t bet against this team making it to championship weekend. Even shorthanded they’ve been able to keep their goal differential at -6 through two games.
Chris Gray to win MVP (+1600)
Jeff Teat is the clear front runner for MVP, which means all of the attention is on him for the remainder of the season. At +1600 Gray has nearly the production of Teat but will likely have a better matchup all season long. Look for the line to move in the books favor as Gray continues to tear it up.