Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Monday night in the NBA and 7 games await us. The Pistons and Pacers are in full tank mode as the injury report has used the maximum number of characters allowed, but I’m excited to find value in what players remain. Memphis heads to Dallas with Luka Doncic sitting out another game due to a thigh strain; Kyrie is currently questionable. The highlight of the night is Phoenix heading to Golden State, but without Durant, this game loses some luster. To put a bow on Monday night, the Bucks are on the west coast taking on Sacramento in the late game with Giannis currently questionable due to right-hand soreness. Let’s turn this into a profitable Monday, and make sure you check out our NBA picks for every game tonight as well.
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Jaren Jackson Jr (MEM) over 19.5 points (-130)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
This is a great buy-low spot for JJJ, who is coming off his 3rd-worst shooting performance of the season on Saturday night. Jackson went 3/12 from the floor and 0/5 from deep but did manage 9 free-throw attempts. As a result, we’re getting this line below 20.5 which is key. Jackson has hit this in 3 of his last 4 games and leads the Grizzlies in scoring during that span with 21.3 ppg (Ja Morant’s absence). His 8.5 free-throw attempts per game is +4 better than his season average of 4.5 per game and a great sign that he’s become a focal point of this offense. The Mavericks are allowing the most ppg to opposing PFs and 5th-worst FG% for shots within 10 feet over the last 7. 1U
Tyus Jones (MEM) over 7.5 assists (-125)
Line available at PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I rarely have 2 props in the same game, but this one really stood out to me. Jones is averaging 14.5 potential assists and 9 assists per game over the last 4 since Morant’s absence. He had 17 potential assists and finished with 10 despite Jackson Jr. shooting 25% from the field that day. I think Jackson picks it up offensively and it gets Jones back up above this number for the 4th time in the last 5 games. 1U
Jaden McDaniels (MIN) over 12.5 points (-115)
Line available at PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
McDaniels is playing well of late and averaging 12.7 ppg since the all-star break (+1.3 vs prior). His minutes are getting a boost as well, sitting at 32.3 mpg over the last 7, and more importantly, he’s getting more field-goal attempts (9.5 per game) in that same span. The Hawks are giving up the 2nd-most points per game to opposing PFs over the last 7 and this line is right at McDaniels’ average over the last 10 (12.9). 1U
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Josh Okogie (PHO) over 1.5 threes (-115)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m running this back from Saturday night where Okogie went 3/6 from three-point land and played 35 minutes as a starter. Tonight, Phoenix plays the first of a back-to-back against the Warriors, who are bottom 5 in three-point attempts and three-point percentage over the last 5 games. Okogie will be on the floor again for another 30+ minutes barring foul trouble and hits this line in 7/12 when seeing that type of workload. 0.5U
Domantas Sabonis (SAC) over 30.5 points and rebounds (-120)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Averaging 33.1 points & rebounds per game over the last 10 and gets a Bucks team in the middle of a west coast road trip. Giannis is questionable and this is the first game of a back-to-back with tomorrow’s game against Phoenix being a national one on NBA TV. My suspicion is that Giannis sits tonight and plays tomorrow, but that is clearly speculation at this point. Either way, Sabonis hit this line against Milwaukee back in December with Giannis starting, so I’m not overly concerned with his injury status. The Bucks are allowing the most offensive rebounds per game over the last 5, which should give Sabonis the boost he needs to clear this line. 1U
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