Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
NBA
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With all of the hype this week surrounding March Madness, it’s easy to forget we have roughly 13 games left in the NBA regular season. The MVP race is starting to tighten, and the bottom half of the Western Conference is in on dog fight for seeding. There are 7 games on the docket tonight with the highlight being the Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) hosting the Golden State Warriors. Both teams are 36-33 with the tiebreaker going to Golden State for a better record in conference play. Other big games include Philadelphia (-2.5) going to Cleveland to play the Cavaliers on a back-to-back. Let’s look at some of my favorite player props for tonight, but don’t forget to check out our NBA picks for all of today’s games.
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Steph Curry (GSW) over 27.5 points (-125)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This game matters more to players than any other game on tonight’s slate and it will have a playoff atmosphere. And for that reason (Mark Cuban voice) I’m putting my money behind Steph Curry. Curry has hit this line in 3 of the last 5 games, with one miss landing at 27 exactly. He’s averaging 31 ppg since the all-star break and 30 ppg on the road this season. His one game against the Clippers this year was back in November and Los Angeles was an entirely different team at the time; I can’t put much stock in his 22-point performance considering he only played 2 minutes in the 4th quarter.
In 2021, Curry had 45, 33, and 33-point performances against the Clippers, with both 33-point games being on the road. Fast forward to today, the Clippers are allowing the 2nd-most points per game in the league since the all-star break and the 4th-most field-goal attempts per game in that span. Curry is the king of the bounce-back performance; he had 23 points the other night against Phoenix. This season when Curry scores 23 points or less, the next game he exceeds this line in 8 out of 9 games (88%). I’m all over this for 1.5U.
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Jayson Tatum (BOS) over 28.5 points (-140)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s more chalk than I’m accustomed to, but the Timberwolves are a great matchup for Tatum as the Celtics need to gain back momentum in the East. Minnesota is allowing the 2nd-most free-throw attempts per game since the all-star break and when Tatum hits his season average of 8 free-throw attempts per game, he hits this line in 31/35 games on the season (88%). He’s sitting at 31.5 ppg for the month of March and this is the 2nd-highest game total of the night (233.5). I would still feel comfortable with this line at 29.5 but rolling for 1U at the safer line.
Jalen Green (HOU) under 24.5 points (-115)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Lakers are the 2nd-best team in the league defensively since moves made at the trade deadline (108.8 defensive rating). Yes, they are on a back-to-back and Anthony Davis is expected to sit tonight, but the culture has completely shifted to a defensive team over the last 13 games. One stat that swayed me on this specific play is that they are giving up the 2nd-fewest free-throw attempts per game since the all-star break. Jalen Green is first on his team in free-throw attempts per game and when he has 6 or fewer FTAs per game, he hits this line in 11/37 (29%).
The Lakers are also allowing the 2nd-lowest three-point percentage since the all-star break, where Green is making 34% of his shots. The Rockets’ shooting guard is averaging 21.9 ppg since the all-star break and had 23 against the Lakers earlier in the year. Since returning from a 2-game absence, Green has only hit this line in 3/8 and 2 of those 3 included 11 FTAs. The Lakers now have a plethora of wing defenders to throw at Green and I expect him to struggle tonight. 1U
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