Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
NBA
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Another NBA Sunday ahead of us as we inch closer to the playoffs. 8 games on the slate and two of which had +9.5 spreads (Hawks v. Spurs & Raptors vs Bucks). These can get ugly and really crush a player prop, unless of course you’re on the under. The slate as a whole is…ugly. Nothing stands out from a possible playoff matchup and there are a slew of teams on a back-to-back. I have found a few spots with good value so we shall stay the course!
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John Collins (ATL) over 17.5 points+ rebounds (-115)
Line available on Caesar’s sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Collins has been a polarizing figure under new HC Quin Snyder. His minutes have taken a hit post ASB, but his 3P% and TS% have increased in that span. He’s seen a significant change in his minutes over the L5 games, signaling he’s earning back some trust to stay on the floor and hasn’t dipped below 27min in that span. He’s hit this number in 3 of the L5 and gets a good matchup today in the San Antonio Spurs. He hit this line with ease against the Spurs in February and they’re giving up 6th most PPG to opposing PFs over the L7. Collins has been rumored to be traded to the Spurs for the last 2 years so it’s important he continues to make a good impression in case that day ever comes (joke). I do like this line at only 17.5 and project him at 14 points and 5 rebounds. 1 unit play.
Mikal Bridges (BKL) over 2.5 assists (+100)
Line available on BetMGM sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Bridges is averaging nearly 6 potential assists per game post All-Star Break and is playing 35mpg in that same stretch. The Nuggets are allowing the 7th most assists per game and 11th best FG% post-ASB. Bridges had 2 assists on 5 potential against Denver a few games back and I like this spot for the Nets getting Denver on the road, on a back-to-back. The + odds is what is putting me over the edge here and can see Bridges picking up several assists courtesy of Seth Curry and Cam Johnson today. This is a 1 unit play.
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Brandon Ingram (NOLA) under 26.5 points (-111)
Line available on BetMGM sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Yes, Ingram had 31 points against the Rockets two nights ago. However, he also played 38 minutes and tied a season high 11 FTA in the game. I’m expecting both of those number to come down greatly today. Aside from the obvious I just stated, Ingram also shot 45% from the field and 60% from 3P, which are impressive to say the least. It will be difficult to duplicate, and I’ll roll the dice on Ingram coming back down to earth considering he’s only hit this line in 30% of games this season. 1U play from me.
Dejounte Murray (ATL) over 6.5 assists (+120)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m taking a flyer on this in the chance that Trae Young is declared out and if he isn’t, this still has legs at 6.5. This is Murray’s first game back in San Antonio facing his old team and he is averaging 10.4 potential assists per game since the All-Star Break. That number will certainly jump if Trae Young sits (currently Questionable). The Spurs are allowing the 9th most FGA per game, 5th highest 3-point percentage, and middle of the pack in opponent assists per game (15th) all post All-Star Break. I like this at the +odds we’re getting and considering he’s hit this in 40% of games and flirted with it (6+) in 54% of games. This game being the Spurs with Trae battling a knee injury puts me over the edge. We’ll go with a half-unit play here.
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