Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Monday in the NBA offers us an 8-game slate with a high possibility for blowouts, with 3 games that have double-digit spreads. Luka Doncic is suspended one game for reaching 15 technical fouls and will miss the Rick Carlisle revenge game in Indiana. The highlight of the night is easily the MVP showdown of Nikola Jokic vs Joel Embiid in Denver. While Embiid is listed as questionable, I can’t see him missing an opportunity to let the voters know this year’s award belongs to him. I’m most excited for Minnesota vs Sacramento in what could be an early playoff matchup depending on seeding. Let’s dive into tonight’s best NBA player props.
Killian Hayes (DET) under 12.5 points (-111)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hayes is playing Milwaukee tonight, where he is 0-2 against this line this season, although was not a starter in either. As a starter, he’s averaging 11.4 ppg and 10.8 ppg since the all-star break. This line is high likely due to 3 games in the last 2 weeks that exceeded 17+ performances, only 1 of which included Jaden Ivey in the lineup. He’s only hit this line in 37% of games as a starter and with a 16.5-point spread, this game could see Hayes dip below 30 minutes in a blowout. 1U
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Kawhi Leonard (LAC) over 4.5 assists (+125)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Leonard is averaging 8.5 potential assists over the last 2 games with Paul George out of the lineup and he’s had 6 and 4 assists in that span. Tonight, he gets the Bulls on a back-to-back and despite Chicago being top 10 in March in opponent points per game, they are 21st in opponent assists per game in that same span. I love that we’re getting plus-money odds and expect Kawhi’s usage to increase down the stretch; he posted his 3rd-highest mark in his last game against New Orleans. 0.5U
Check out our NBA picks for each of tonight’s 8 games
Mitchell Robinson (NYK) under 9.5 rebounds (-122)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Everyone keeps sleeping on this Rockets team, but I’ll continue to hammer unders against them down the stretch. Houston ranks 5th in opponent rebounds per game in the month of March; yes, you read that correctly. They are still giving up a ton of points, but are playing motivated basketball with rookie Tari Eason being a boost off the bench defensively. I can see Robinson being limited in his minutes tonight as Houston plays small/fast and Robinson only cleared this line once in the last 6 games. 0.5U
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Domantas Sabonis (SAC) over 12.5 rebounds (-125)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sabonis has hit this in 2 out of 3 games against the Timberwolves this season. Yes, Karl-Anthony Towns is back, but I think that leads to more feeling out between him and Gobert, along with Chris Finch tinkering with lineups in preparation for the playoffs. Sabonis is averaging 13.2 rpg since the all-star break and an even 13 in the month of March. Minnesota ranks 20th in opponent rebounds per game this month. 1.5U
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