Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
NBA
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After an amazing Sunday of basketball is the aftermath on Monday night: 6 games and 3 teams on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back situation. Regardless of the small slate, we do have a playoff matchup in Boston traveling to Cleveland after an OT loss to the surging Knicks. Atlanta plays Miami for the 2nd time in 3 days and the Raptors vs Nuggets may be more competitive than we think.
Here are my best player prop bets for Monday.
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Tyler Herro (MIA) Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-130)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In every game this season against Atlanta, Herro has hoisted 8+ 3PA and hit this line the other night going 3-for-9 from beyond the arc. His line was as high as 3.5 recently and has made its way down to 2.5. In the Heat-Hawks game on March 4, Herro played a team high 38 minutes and had the highest USG% of the Heat. He initiated the offense and exploited mismatches with Trae Young when possible, resulting in many uncontested 3-point shots coming off high pick-and-rolls. I like this as a volume play for Herro, who has shot 7+ 3-point attempts in 15 of the last 20 games. When he attempts 7+ 3s in a game, he has hit this line 68% of the time on the season. 1U.
Brandon Ingram (NO) Over 10.5 rebounds + assists (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Ingram is averaging 11 potential assists per game over the last 7 and 12 potential assists over the last 3, so he is trending in the right direction. Sacramento gives up the 3rd-most assists per game on the season and the most in the league over the last 3 games. This is a PACE increase spot for the Pelicans, which should get Ingram a few more opportunities than usual. Ingram’s RA line used to be as high as 12.5 not too long ago, but we’re getting a favorable opponent at reasonable line of 10.5. This is his first game against Sacramento this season, but last year Ingram had 11 and 12 R+A against the Kings. Over the last 9 games he has not logged fewer than 32 min and he is at 37 MPG post-all star break. 1U.
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Matisse Thybulle (POR) Over 2.5 steals + blocks (+110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a repeat from yesterday, but against a much more favorable opponent. Thybulle has hit this line in 6 of 8 games (75%) as a Trail Blazer and gets a Pistons team ranked 20th in opposing team blocks and 22nd opposing team steals over the last 10. The steals piece jumps to 29th overall over the last 5 games; they are just not doing a good job protecting the basketball. I love this at +110 considering Thybulle is a starter averaging more than 32 MPG over the last 3. 0.5U.
Check back in for my $5 and a Dream parlay later in the day!
$5 and a Dream Parlay
- Tyler Herro 5+ 3PM (+500)
- Michael Porter Jr 20+Points (+165)
- Jaylen Brown 4+ 3PM (+230)
- Drew Eubanks 8+ Rebounds (+110)
$5 pays $545
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