Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
NBA
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NBA Wednesdays have shifted from the beginning of the season. It used to be the highlight of the week with 9+ games and the best teams squaring off. After all-star break, that day is reserved for Sundays, but we still have 7 games tonight with playoff possibilities. Atlanta heads to Washington on the tail end of a back-to-back. Cleveland and Miami are both entrenched in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and Kevin Durant faces his original team in the Oklahoma City Thunder. To finish off the night, Toronto is in Los Angeles to face Kawhi and the Clippers. Let’s dive into my best NBA player props for tonight, but make sure you also check out our NBA picks on the side and total after our experts went 11-5 yesterday.
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Jayson Tatum (BOS) over 28.5 points (-119)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Celtics are spiraling. They’ve lost 3 straight and in epic fashion. Tatum missed Monday’s game against the Cavaliers due to a left knee contusion, but I want to say that was more rest than anything else after playing 48 minutes against the Knicks and going to overtime. The Celtics need to stop the bleeding, and against the Trail Blazers on the tail end of a 5-game East Coast road trip seems like a great place to start.
Portland is giving up the 6th-most ppg to opposing power forwards over the last 7 games and this line is just below Tatum’s season average of 30 ppg. These are the games you look to your star player to make a statement and level the ship. I’m shocked we’re getting this below 29.5, so jump on this line early before tip-off. Last season against Portland, Tatum had 31 and 27 points and both games he was above 42% from the field. Tatum has hit this line in 39 of 61 games (64%). I’m playing 1.5U at the 28.5, but scale back to 1U if 29.5 is all that is left.
Pascal Siakam (TOR) over 22.5 points (-115)
Line available on PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Siakam has sputtered of late as the Raptors alternate wins and losses down the stretch. Foul trouble against the Wizards in back-to-back games really limited his aggressiveness in the paint, but we get a great low-post matchup in the Clippers tonight. His line is at 22.5, tied for the lowest it’s been in the last 10 games, despite averaging 24 ppg on the season and 23 over the last 10.
The Clippers since adding Westbrook have greatly changed their approach on both ends of the floor to more spread out and significantly higher pace. As a result, they’re getting killed in the paint. Los Angeles is allowing the 3rd-highest FG % at the rim and the 4th-most field-goal attempts in that same range. Siakam is an alt-line candidate for me and will show up in our $5 and a Dream Parlay. 1U
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Jonas Valanciunas (NOL) over 13.5 points (-120)
Line available on PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is right at Valanciunas’ season average and just slightly above his average over the last 10 (13.4 ppg). The Mavericks are on a back-to-back and giving up the most ppg to opposing centers over the last 7 games (29.2). Valanciunas had 25 points against Dallas back in January on an efficient 10/13 from the field. Over the last 10, Dallas is allowing the most points in the paint (59.4) and a league-worst 73.9% field-goal percentage within 5 feet; Valanciunas should not need more than 10+ field-goal attempts to hit this line. This is a great spot for Jonas to help New Orleans stop the bleeding. 1U
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Josh Green (DAL) over 1.5 3PM (+150)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Reggie Bullock is out tonight and while many will be running to the window for Tim Hardaway Jr. props, I think this opens the door for more 3PA for Green. He went on a stretch in February where he made 2+ 3PA in 6 of 11 games. He’s coming off a 5 3PA performance last night and is shooting 43% from 3 on back-to-backs. It’s an overlooked spot for Green against a Pelicans team giving up the 9th most 3PA per game since All-Star break. 1U
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