Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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A Saturday filled with nearly 12 hours of playoff basketball; this is what dreams are made of {Alexa, play the Lizzie McGuire soundtrack}. In the 1:00 pm slot, we have Game 4 of 76ers vs Nets (+2). Joel Embiid will miss the game with a sprained right knee. In my opinion this is Brooklyn’s best chance of stealing a game in the series and they’re still underdogs. At 3:30pm, the Suns play the Clippers (+7.5) without Kawhi Leonard, also due to a knee injury. This series is over, and I expect the Suns to run through what’s left of the “other” Los Angeles team. In the 7:00 pm game we have Bucks and Heat (+5) and Giannis Antetokounmpo status is still uncertain. The main even tonight (not Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia) is LeBron James vs Dillon Brooks. All eyes will be on King James to see if he responds to the disrespect earlier in the week following a Game 2 loss. This is essentially the first playoff game in Staples Center Crypto Arena since before COVID and I expect the Los Angeles fans to be at their loudest.
Let’s dive into the slate.
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Kevin Durant (PHX) Over 28.5 points (-104)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This play directly relates to Kawhi’s absence tonight. He has hit this in 25 of 47 games this season (53%) and right at his season average of 29 ppg. Durant only played 8 regular seasons games with the Suns, but still hit this in 4/8. He’s flirted with this number in all 3 postseason games so far (27,25,28) and will not see Kawhi defensively. My only fear is that this game is a blowout and Durant does not see 40+min, but if it does get ugly, it likely means Durant had himself a day. Booker has had the ideal matchup this series and it will benefit Phoenix in the long run for us to see “playoff Durant” at some point. 1U and his alt-lines of 30+ and 35+ are very much in play.
Normal Powell (LAC) Under 26.5 points (-122)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I realize Powell is coming off a 42-point performance, but I refuse to believe he will shoot 65% from the field and 58% from 3P again in Game 4. In games this regular season where he played 33 minutes or more, Powell hit this in 2 of 4 so far this series. Phoenix will likely focus their defensive efforts on Powell and allow Westbrook to go 1-on-1 all night with Booker. The numbers will obviously be skewed given the circumstances, but this still has an 11% hit rate in the regular season and will be very difficult to catch Phoenix off guard like he did in Game 3. 1U.
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Anthony Davis (LAL) Over 23.5 points (-104)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I am a scorned lover at this point. I’ve played Davis’ over on points in the first 2 games of this series because they were just too low compared to season averages. We’re getting this line at a very generous 23.5 based on his first earlier performances. Game 1 Davis had 8 points in the first quarter and then immediately was hurt in the second quarter. He finished that contest with 22. In Game 2 the Grizzlies did one of the best jobs I’ve seen all season contesting shots and Davis shot a putrid 4-for-14 from the field with only 4 free-throw attempts. The Lakers come back home for Game 3 with the entire focus on LeBron to respond to Dillon Brooks comments about not hanging 40 on him. I think we all know LeBron doesn’t care about the individual accolades but wants to send him packing. For the Lakers, Davis success is tied to them winning and I believe Brooks was intentional in his comments trying to get LeBron to take the majority of shots today. This is has “AD game” written all over it. 2U.
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) Over 3.5 assists (+135)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is not something you would consider, but there is a trend to Maxey’s assist totals when Embiid is not in the lineup. In 10 games without Embiid this season, Maxey averages 5 assists per game and hit this line in 8/10 games! The Nets will likely attempt to run more small-ball lineups with Embiid out and give Philadelphia motivation to spread the floor with more shooters (Niang, Melton, Milton). I love this at plus money. 1U.
LeBron James (LAL) Over 5.5 assists (-122)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Grizzlies gave up the second-most APG post-ASB during regular season and this line is just too low for King James. He’s averaging 7.2 APG at home this season and 6APG vs Memphis all season. While the attention will be on him to score, I think the rest of the team steps up at home today to make this a convincing Lakers victory. Los Angeles has that 10th-best FG% at home post-ASB and this line has a 70% hit rate on the season. 1U.
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