Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals heads back to Los Angeles, where the Lakers currently sit at -5.5 favorites. Everyone on the floor in Game 2 was completely gassed in the fourth quarter, but Jamal Murray put together an all-time playoff performance and stole a victory. The Lakers better win tonight if they want to make it a series. I’m hoping the lack of elevation aids LeBron James and Anthony Davis late in the game, as it was an issue while on the road.
As far as Game 3 adjustments, I’m expecting Denver head coach Mike Malone to get Aaron Gordon involved early in the game offensively — as the Lakers have decided to leave him unguarded in most situations. It will be interesting to see if Rui Hachimura can keep up this level of contribution after two games of highly efficient play.
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D’Angelo Russell, LAL, Over 20.5 P+A+R (+105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It will be fun to see who steps up tonight in the Lakers’ “Other Guy Carousel.” In games 1+2 it was Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves, but tonight I’m focusing in on Russell, who gets a boost playing at home. He is averaging 24.6 PAR at home vs 21 P+A+R on the road. Russell saw an uptick in minutes Game 2 with 32, nearly a 7-minute boost vs Game 1. He has hit this line in 83% of home playoff games this year compared to 50% on the road. 1U.
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Aaron Gordon, DEN, Over 0.5 three-pointers made (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Gordon is being left alone in this series. The Lakers are playing 5 vs 4 defensively and allowing Gordon to stand alone on the perimeter. This is for good reason as Gordon is 0-5 from deep in the series. If we take the WCF out of the equation, he’s hit a 3-pointers in 7 of 11 postseason games (63%) and 3 of 5 on the road. If Gordon cannot make the Lakers pay offensively, they will continue to double Jokic in the paint without any repercussions. Look for Gordon to hit his first triple of the series tonight. 1U.
Same Game Parlay (+119)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- D’Angelo Russell 10+ Points
- 5/6 at home and 78% of postseason games
- Aaron Gordon 4+ Rebounds
- 5/5 on the road and 84% of postseason games
- Anthony Davis 2+ Blocks
- 5/6 at home and 85% of postseason games
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