Rams vs. Patriots Super Bowl Betting Recap

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Ricky Dimon

NFL · 3 years ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

First off, congratulations if you had the under. I’m not talking about just the under on the game total; I mean the under on anything. Other than Julian Edelman’s receiving yardage, Sony Michel’s rushing yardage, and Greg Zuerlein’s longest field goal, the under was basically a winner on everything you can imagine. After all, it was historically low-scoring, offensively-challenged Super Bowl. In the New England Patriots’ 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams, a grand total of one play was run inside the red zone (and it resulted in the only touchdown of the night on a two-yard dive by Michel). The 16 combined points made for the lowest in Super Bowl history and New England’s 13 were the fewest for a winning team. The Rams set a record by punting on eight consecutive possessions.

Let’s take a look at some specific under plays that hit.

Jared Goff under 290.5 passing yards

Bettors should have been all over this. Goff, of course, was competing in his first Super Bowl with a ton of pressure on his shoulders going up against legendary counterpart Tom Brady. He threw for only 186 yards against Dallas in the divisional round and even though he finished with 297 yards against the Saints it was on a modest 25-for-40 effort with one drive’s worth coming in overtime. It was also assumed that L.A. would try to keep Tom Brady off the field by sustaining long, clock-draining, run-heavy drives. Goff amassed just 229 yards in the Super Bowl and missed several opportunities for potential game-changing plays through the air.

Todd Gurley under 66.5 rushing yards

After missing the last two regular-season games with a knee injury and getting only four touches during the NFC Championship, Gurley was the x-factor heading into Sunday. He got the first carry of the Rams’ first drive, but it became quite clear shortly thereafter that this was once again not going to be the same Gurley that had been an MVP candidate throughout much of the 2018 campaign. Presumably less than 100 percent, the former University of Georgia standout gained a meager 35 yards on 10 attempts.

Despite the hopelessness of the two offenses that rendered Super Bowl LIII somewhere between “boring” and “uneventful,” there were some (not many!) opportunities for betting success even for those who may not necessarily have anticipated this kind of defensive struggle.

Michel to score the first touchdown

Michel was the favorite in this category at +500, and why not? Also a former UGA star, he had torched the Chargers for three touchdowns and 129 yards in New England’s playoff opener before finding the endzone twice to go along with 113 yards in the AFC Championship against Kansas City. Even with Michel going off as the favorite, +500 was decent value on which plenty of bettors likely jumped. It took a while (and I mean a while), but he came through for them—scoring what proved to be the game-winner with seven minutes left.

Julian Edelman to win MVP

Brady and Goff were the two obvious favorites, after which nobody had better than +1000 odds. Of the longshots, Edelman at +3000 had perhaps the most enticing value (Aaron Donald at +1800 and Rob Gronkowski down at +5000 may also have piqued some interest). Edelman’s past history in the playoffs and his recent form (151 yards against the Chargers, overtime heroics against the Chiefs) made him an intriguing pick. And he delivered in style, dominating the first half en route to an overall performance of 141 yards on 10 receptions.

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