The Premier Lacrosse League arrives in the PNW this weekend for the final week of the regular season. The Tacoma Dome will play host as there is still plenty up grabs. The Cannons and Chaos are both playing for a playoff spot. The Archers, Whipsnakes, Atlas, and Redwoods are all alive to take the final two spots in February’s Championship Series sixes tournament. Only the Whipsnakes have secured their future, having locked up the top overall seed. Everyone else has postseason stakes on the line.
With the stakes that high this weekend, the stars of the PLL should be leaving it all out on the field in Seattle.
Rob Pannell (Redwoods) over 2.5 assists (+125)
Last week, Pannell had the same bet offered at +145 money. He had six assists and cashed the over in the 2nd quarter. This week, bookmakers are once again letting bettors take the over on Pannell assists at plus money. Pannell has had at least three assists in each of the last three weeks. He is second in the league in assist opportunities at 48, and they are converted 43.75% of the time. His second assist opportunity count is quite low, meaning when Pannell has an opening for a skip to a shooter or scoring opportunity, the player doesn’t need to make the extra pass, he’s already in a position to finish. On the year, the Chrome have allowed 54 goals on assisted opportunities and a 45.7% assist rate. Last week, the Cannons had six assists on their nine goals. Dhane Smith had three himself against Chrome the week before. And six of the nine Whipsnakes goals were assisted the week before that.
Chrome have leaned on Mike Manley and JT Giles Harris to limit the production of opponent’s top weapons. Pannell certainly sees one of those two this week. Since the All-Star break, Pannell has fully embraced the distributor first role in the offense. The shooters on this team have been excellent in assisted situations. Ryder Garnsey shoots 46.2% when assisted, 6th best in the league. Charlie Bertrand is over 41% when assisted, and Jules Heningburg is at 35%. Pannell has spoken about maintaining focus while ramping up preparation as the playoffs are now just a week away. He’ll want to keep his level of play high. The Chrome defense is strong in settled situations, but Pannell is just too hot as a pass first player right now to leave plus money on the table here again.
Jeff Teat (Atlas) under 2.5 goals (-140)
Teat’s goal production has been way down in the second half. He hasn’t had a hat trick since 6/25 against the Archers. While his point totals remain where you’d expect a player of his caliber, a lot of it is coming in the form of assists. Teat has 49 assist opportunities, the most in the league. He has nine assists in his last three games, compared to just four goals. Teat has also been shooting much less recently. In his first two games this year, Teat took 17 shots. He took 10 shots in a single game on 6/25 against Archers. Over his last three games, Teat has taken just 10 shots total. The Atlas offensive approach has always been family style. Share the ball, everyone scores, it doesn’t matter who gets the goals. Teat’s role in recent weeks has been that of distributor, not primary goal scorer. The Chaos have allowed 51 assisted goals on 172 assisted shots this season, so the opportunities to assists should be there for Teat. While a productive day for Teat could be in the cards, he should be able to continue as an assist man first.
Marcus Holman (Archers) over 2.5 goals (+120)
Holman has been a regular in the “best shooter in the world” discussion. He, yet again, won the accuracy contest at All-Star weekend.
Holman has 17 assisted goals on 44 shots this season, making him first overall in the league. He feasts when he’s able to catch and shoot with space. The Whipsnakes have allowed 70 assisted goals on 181 shots, or 38.6% shooting. That’s the second worst assist rate defensively in the league. The Archers offense is, conversely, the best in the league in assisted shooting. 66 assisted goals on 187 shots, good for 35% shooting and an assist rate over 55%. There’s only one game of data for Holman vs Waterdogs goalie Dillon Ward, but in that game he had three goals on seven shots.
The Archers are an offense that wants to play as fast as they possible they can. They want to spin the ball, attack your defense where it’s weakest, and then spin the ball around some more while the defense is unsettled or recovering. Holman has found himself as the beneficiary of this offense more than any other player in the PLL this year, and he should have no shortage of catch and shoot attempts against the Waterdogs.
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