Ricky Dimon
It’s win-or-go-home time for the Los Angeles Lakers, as they trail the Minnesota Timberwolves 3-1 heading into Game 5 of this Western Conference first-round series on Wednesday night. These 2 teams split the first 2 contests at Crypto.com Arena before the Timberwolves took both in Minnesota. Will the Lakers be able stay alive in front of the home crowd, or is the first season – albeit an abbreviated one – of the LeBron James-Luka Doncic duo coming to an end?
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 10:00 pm ET on TNT. Also be sure to check out our full Timberwolves vs Lakers prediction when available.
Timberwolves ML (+190)
Julius Randle Over 19.5 points (-130)
Austin Reaves Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-160)
Parlay odds: +587
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Timberwolves forward Julius Randle scoring his fair share of points would obviously work well with a win by the visitors. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing Lakers guard Austin Reaves to drain a couple of 3-pointers. But even if does, there is no reason why Minnesota can’t get the job done. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Timberwolves ML (+190)
The Timberwolves may be the #6 seed in the West, but it is no surprise that they are on the verge of ousting the third-seeded Lakers. They are much better than #6 – and would have been if not for some injuries during the regular season. Well, Randle, Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert are all healthy at the right time and it has paid off with 3 victories through the first 4 games of this series. The all-important fourth win may come sooner rather than later. Minnesota already proved it can win inside Crypto.com Arena, having walloped Los Angeles 117-95 in Game 1. Now the T-Wolves have a ton of momentum after taking both of the games that were played at home – inclduing a 116-113 thriller on Sunday that has the Lakers reeling. The pressure is all on L.A. Even if the Timberwolves lose, they would have a home game to close out the series. They might not even need it.
Julius Randle Over 19.5 points (-130)
The Lakers lost their best low-post defender when they traded Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic. That has opened things up nicely in the paint for Randle, who has been productive so far during this season and could be in line for an especially big performance on Wednesday. With Edwards having gone wild in Game 4, Los Angeles is going to do everything in its power to make someone else beat them this time around. I expect the home team to send as much defensive artillery in Ant Man’s direction as possible. Don’t be surprised if Randle is the beneficiary. The former Kentucky standout has scored 27, 22 and 25 points in the last 3 games and he forked up 22 attempts from the floor on Sunday. Dating back to the regular season he has pinned at least 21 points on the Lakers in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups.
Austin Reaves Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-160)
Backing Reaves to stink a trio of 3-pointers certainly isn’t cripping for a wager on Minnesota’s money line. After all, that is only 9 points we are talking about – hardly consequential in the grand scheme of things. And it’s a mark Reaves should hit without much trouble. The Oklahoma product has drained at least 3 shots from the land of plenty in 8 of his last 9 games and in 10 of last 12. He has successfully dialed long distance 10 times over the past 2 contests. Let’s put our chips on Reaves staying hot – even if his team gets eliminated.
