Ricky Dimon
The pressure is on the Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors as they prepare to host Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal series against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. Golden State had a brief 1-0 lead, but Curry has missed the last 2 contests and his team now finds itself in a 2-1 hole.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 10:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction.
Warriors +5.5 (-112)
Buddy Hield Over 13.5 points (-122)
Julius Randle to record a double-double (+200)
Parlay odds: +717
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Golden State guard Buddy Hield scoring his fair share of points would obviously work well with a Warriors cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing Minnesota forward Julius Randle to deliver a double-double. But even if Randle does, there is no reason why the home team can’t be competitive. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Warriors +5.5 (-112)
I’m not willing to back Golden State on the money, but head coach Steve Kerr’s team should at least be able to keep this one close. It’s hard to be overly impressed with the Timberwolves so far. They lost Game 1 by double-digits even though Curry played only 13 minutes and they did not pull away in Game 3 until the final 2 minutes once Draymond Green fouled out on a questionable call. Yes, the T-Wolves were by far the better side in Game 2 – but that was at the Target Center. I expect Golden State to be competitive in the friendly confines of the Chase Center. Hield and Jimmy Butler have been stepping up in a big way for the Dubs – they were already doing that even when Curry was playing. Those 2 guys alone could be enough for the Warriors to be competitive on Monday. You also have to think that Green (2 points) and Brandin Podziemski (1-for-10 from the field) will be a lot better than they were in Game 3.
Buddy Hield Over 13.5 points (-122)
From a scoring standpoint, Butler and Hield really have to pick up the slack in Curry’s absence. Hield, especially, needs to provide a 3-point shooting threat with Curry on the sidelines and that is exactly what he has been doing. The former Oklahoma standout is 13-for-25 from 3-point range in this series after going 4-for-8 from the land of plenty on Saturday. Hield’s hot streak dates back to round 1 against the Rockets, whom he torched to the tune of a 9-for-11 effort in Game 7. The 32-year-old scored at least 15 points in 3 of the last 5 outings against Houston, including 33 in the clincher. He has contributed 14 points or more in all 3 contests against Minnesota, including 24 in Game 1.
Julius Randle to record a double-double (+200)
Randle delivered a triple-double in Game 3 (24 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds), so asking him to simply produce a double-double on Monday should not be too much. The Kentucky product has recorded a double-double in each of the past 2 contests, having finished with 24 points and 11 assists on Thursday. This actually doesn’t contradict the Warriors +5.5 leg because Randle will log more minutes if his squad is locked in a competitive game. Golden State kept it close from start to finish in Game 3 and Randle stayed on the floor for 40 minutes – 7 more than in Game 2, which was mostly a lopsided affair.
