Ahaan Rungta
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We have a slim slate of MLB action this evening and not many spots to find great betting value, but I have done the work for you. This is my favorite prop for the evening slate of Thursday, April 11, 2024.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Baltimore Orioles are looking for a sweep at Fenway Park and they will face starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock. The entire rotation of the Boston Red Sox has been impressive under new coaching to start 2024, but Whitlock’s low career walk rate makes this prop a bit easier to target.
Henderson has the biggest discrepancy in odds to hit a home run of any hitter in this game, a sign that the books think he is in a good spot today. Indeed, last season he posted a 129 wRC+, .257 ISO, and 47.0% HardHit% against right-handers on the road and this season in a small sample size, he is doing much of the same — sporting a 149 wRC+, .333 ISO, and 54.5% HardHit% against right-handers. In particular, he has posted a .517 xSLG against right-handed sinkers — Whitlock’s top put-away pitch.
Even if Henderson cannot crush a baseball early against the starter, it is of note that Boston’s bullpen is gassed — with top relievers Josh Winckowski, Chris Martin and Brennan Bernardino all having pitched high volume over the last couple of days.
It could be a drizzly pitching battle overall on Thursday night at Fenway, but Baltimore’s leadoff man is likely to get at least 4 plate appearances on the road — so this price at pick ‘em is a steal.
