Ahaan Rungta
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We have a massive 12-game slate in the NBA tonight and it is time to find the best spots for betting value in the player prop department. I’m now 30-18 on NBA player prop bets this season for a +19.3% ROI. Let’s add some more winners tonight! These are my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, January 29. Make sure you also read our NBA picks for tonight’s big matchups.
Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) under 20.5 points + rebounds (-108)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Although the Pelicans’ starting center has cleared this line in 4 straight games, we are getting a sell-high opportunity and there is a reason the juice is already beginning to move to the “under” on this prop on other sportsbooks. First off, the Pelicans are the healthiest they have been all season, listing zero members of the roster on the injury report. That includes backup defensive-minded big Larry Nance Jr. and co-backup Cody Zeller being available to play relief for Valančiūnas. Tack that on with the blowout potential of the game (8-point spread) and foul trouble while contending with Kristaps Porzingis, and Valanciunas could struggle to reach the 25-minute mark for playing time. When he clears this mark, it is typically against paint-porous defenses where he can play bully ball on the offensive glass. That is not the case here.
Since the return of C.J. McCollum in early December, Valanciunas has averaged 22.8 points+rebounds per 25 minutes overall when McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson all play. However, the challenge of guarding Kristaps Porzingis around the perimeter and in the post takes away rebounding chances and the limited paint-centric bag limits scoring chances against the Celtics’ defensive scheme. Over their last 15 games, Boston has allowed the 8th-fewest rebounds per game to centers and on the season, they have allowed the 5th-fewest field goals made per game at the rim. Our projection in this spot is 10.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, making this line a clear fade at the pick’em price.
Luguentz Dort (OKC) over 8.5 points (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
This is a complete buy-low on a streaky player in a sneakily solid matchup. On the season, Dort is averaging 11.0 points per 30 minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup. Against a Timberwolves team with talented scorers in a game where the spread is thin (2.5 points), expect the Thunder’s best defensive player to be heavily involved in the gameplan for 4 quarters and consider 30 minutes to be a floor outcome for him barring an outlier blowout situation.
The Timberwolves should also allow Dort some open shots; while elite perimeter defender Jaden McDaniels will have his hands full with Gilgeous-Alexander and reputed rim protector Rudy Gobert will man up against Chet Holmgren, Dort will get the benefit of cuts and jumpers from deep. On the season, Dort is 2nd on the team and the leader of the starters in attempts from corner-three-point territory, which is where Minnesota has been a below-average defense since the return of McDaniels. Dort has remained under this line in 3 straight games, but part of it was due to a lack of minutes as he dealt with foul trouble in 1 game and blowouts in the others. Although nothing is comforting about asking the defense-first wing like Lu Dort to take on scoring duties, our projection in this spot is 10.5 points; this line is too low so we will look to take advantage.
After 3 parlay winners last week, check out tonight’s NBA mega parlay at +871 odds!
