Today’s Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday, February 22: Nuggets stop Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones of the Washington Wizards
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Ahaan Rungta


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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
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Following an eventful All-Star Weekend in which Damian Lillard stole the show with two awards, we are approaching high-stakes hoops in the association again. It is always beneficial to get ahead of the betting market before lines become more sharp; we will do just that for the upcoming 12-game slate.

I am now 35-23 for a +15.3% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are 2 of my favorite NBA player prop bets for Thursday, February 22, but make sure you also read our NBA picks for this huge slate of games.

P.J. Washington, CHA, Over 1.5 threes (+106)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Dallas Mavericks had one of the most impactful trade deadlines in the NBA and part of it was acquiring the big man floor-spacer P.J. Washington. A career 35.7% shooter from deep, Washington has been inconsistent this season but he now gets a beauty of a fit for his game playing alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who produce open looks for their teammate spot-up shooters at an elite rate.

In 3 games with his new team, Washington has averaged 4.8 three-point attempts per 35 minutes and in the one close game Dallas played, he recorded 36 minutes and is clearly already a key part of the Mavericks’ primary rotation. On Thursday he draws a good matchup against the Phoenix Suns in a game with a 3-point spread and 243.5-point Vegas total. On the season, Phoenix has allowed the 11th-most points per possession against spot-up shooters and the 11th-most above-the-break three-pointers made per game.

I have Washington projected for 5.0 attempts and 1.75 makes from deep, giving this prop great value at plus money and playable down to -115.

Check out our NBA mega parlay for Thursday night at +1230 odds!

Tyus Jones, WSH, Under 13.5 points (-125)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Wizards injury report hasn’t seen much movement all season long and their only significant designation is on Kyle Kuzma, who was dealing with an illness entering the all-star break. All signs point toward him being healthy and good to go for Thursday, and when that happens starting point guard Tyus Jones averages 14.4 points per 33 minutes. Now he gets a brutal matchup in a game with a 15.5-point spread, meaning he might not even challenge 30 minutes.

While Aaron Gordon will mostly match up with Kuzma on defense, Jones is far from off the hook; he will see a lot of one-on-one coverage from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. On the season, the Nuggets are a top-5 defense against spot-up shooting and pick-and-roll ball handlers, which is terrible news for Jones’ preferred scoring game. Although Jones cleared this line in these teams’ previous meeting, that game reads as an anomaly. Not only was that game competitive for 4 quarters, but it was in normal-altitude conditions in Washington D.C. and Jones still needed an elite shooting clip from deep (3-for-4) to score 15 minutes. Jones’ threes line is set at 1.5 for good reason in this one and he has stayed under this 13.5 points line in 29 of his 40 games when he makes less than a trio of threes.

In this spot I have Jones projected for 11.5 points, making this line playable down to 12.5.

Lock in our Lakers vs Warriors Same Game Parlay for Thursday’s showdown at +406 odds

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