Today's Best NHL Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 4/25: Jake Guentzel returns to form

NHL: Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes
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Mark Lammey


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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind. For Mark Lammey media enquiries, please email
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All 8 opening rounds of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs have completed their first 2 games, which means that each one is transitioning to the other team’s home ice. As we get prepared for a loaded weekend of action, we have 2 series on the ice tonight. They feature 2 division rivalries in the Eastern Conference, with the Panthers battling the Lightning while the Hurricanes take on the Islanders. We’ve broken down our best NHL player prop bet picks for today’s matchups, while you can also check out our NHL picks for tonight’s action.

Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) over 0.5 assists (+100)

Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

It’s been 2 close games so far between the rivals in the Sunshine State, but it’s the Florida Panthers out to a 2-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning. They head over to the west side of the state for tonight’s Game 3, where the Lightning will be looking to rely on the home crowd to hang on to what’s left of their recent dynasty. They can absolutely make this a series tonight, but as for our NHL prop bet picks, we’re getting them started with a Panthers skater. 

Unsurprisingly, we’re targeting Matthew Tkachuk, who became a household name when leading Florida to the Stanley Cup Final last year. Despite Tampa having an elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tkachuk has continued to perform against them since joining Florida. Last year, he had 8 points in 4 games against them, and this year, he had 6 points in 3 games. As if that wasn’t enough, he’s had 2 points in each of the first 2 games of this series. With that type of consistency, we aren’t concerned with the Panthers being on the road, especially with it being a short road trip. So, another apple for Matthew Tkachuk looks to be in the cards for tonight.

Read our full Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions

Jake Guentzel (CAR) over 3.5 shots on goal (+135)

Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

The other divisional rivalry on the ice tonight is one from the Metropolitan Division, and it hasn’t been nearly as close as the previous series. Although the New York Islanders had a 3-goal lead in Game 2, the Carolina Hurricanes pulled off the comeback to take the 2-0 series lead. We’re getting more value with our NHL prop bet picks focused on a skater on the road, and admittedly, Jake Guentzel hasn’t been in his usual shooting form in this series thus far. 

However, we trust that will get back on track, especially given the pressure that is now off Carolina thanks to a commanding series lead. When Guentzel first joined the ‘Canes at the trade deadline, he had a 4-shot game against the Islanders, and in his last game as a Pittsburgh Penguin against them, he recorded 5 shots on goal. Those numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise, as New York allowed the 4th-most shots per game this season. Volume shot-taking is what Guentzel is all about, recording 508 of them in the past 2 seasons with the Pens, so that’s how we’re going to close out our NHL prop bet picks for today.

You can bet on this Guentzel player prop with BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets paid back if your first wager doesn’t win! Click here to sign up for BetMGM and find out more.

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