Ricky Dimon
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March Madness is just about here and the regular season is coming to a close with a huge week on the college hardwood. It continues on Tuesday, when three all-top 25 showdowns are on the schedule. That includes a pair of all-top six contests: Baylor vs. West Virginia and Michigan vs. Illinois.
Here’s our five-team parlay for Tuesday:
Texas -11.5 (-110)
West Virginia ML (+167)
Michigan -7 (-110)
Wake Forest +8.5 (-110)
Marquette ML (-235)
Parlay odds: +2754
For this parlay we mix in two favorites against the spread, one underdog and the points, and two money line winners (one favorite and one underdog). Let’s break down each of the five legs one by one.
Texas -11.5 over Iowa State (-110)
Iowa State is arguably the worst major-conference team in college basketball. The Cyclones have actually been playing better of late, but that isn’t saying a whole lot and this is obviously a tough spot for them against Texas. The Cyclones’ best chance for a Big 12 win came and went with a recent home loss to TCU. They have no real chance to win this one outright; the question is can the underdogs cover. And the answer is probably not. Leading scorer Rasir Bolton suffered an injury against TCU and is questionable for Tuesday, likely closer to being out than in if we had to guess. Texas will have a huge edge in rebounding against Iowa State—and in just about every other department, too.
West Virginia ML over Baylor (+167)
Baylor is coming off its first loss of the season. The Bears have been dealing with coronavirus issues throughout the 2020-21 campaign and they did not look to be in any kind of rhythm against Kansas this past weekend. They just weren’t their normal selves. They will have to be on Tuesday against a West Virginia team that is arguably even better than Kansas. The Mountaineers have won three in a row and have covered in six of their last seven outings. Their only loss in the entire month of February was to Oklahoma by a single point in overtime. Don’t be surprised if the result is two straight losses for Baylor.
Wake Forest +8.5 over Pittsburgh (-110)
Wake Forest certainly isn’t a great team, but it did a good job of covering relatively sizable spreads earlier in the season—including in an overtime loss to Florida State. The Demon Deacons should be able to cover again at Pittsburgh’s expense even though they have not been playing as well over the past few weeks. The good news for Wake is that Pitt also isn’t anything special. Things have gone from bad to worse for the Panthers with Xavier Johnson putting his name in the transfer portal. Without him there is not much hope for this team, even when Justin Champagnie plays well. Pittsburgh has lost five in a row; that skid might end, but it won’t be convincing.
Michigan -7 over Illinois (-110)
Michigan is giving seven points in part because it is at home, but mainly due to the fact that Illinois’ star guard Ayo Dosunmu is questionable. Obviously this spread suggests that no one really thinks he is going to play on Tuesday—and there is no reason for Illinois to rush him back with March Madness on the immediate horizon. Obviously this is an important game, but for a team that has far bigger aspirations this pales in comparison to the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Michigan is positively on fire these days and has inserted itself into the conversation with Baylor and Gonzaga as perhaps being the best team in the nation. The Wolverines are a virtual lock for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Marquette ML over DePaul (-235)
Marquette has a great chance for revenge after they somehow lost to the lowly Blue Demons earlier this season. In that 68-61 January setback, the Golden Eagles shot only 35.5 percent–an alarming difference from their .446 field-goal percentage for the season as a whole. You can’t expect them to be that cold this time around. Moreover, Marquette has six players averaging more than eight points per game, but only three players scored at least eight in the first matchup: D.J. Carton (23), Koby McEwen (eight), and Jamal Cain (eight). DePaul is 2-4 ATS in its last six games and really Marquette should cover—but we’ll make it the safe play of this parlay and take the favorites on the money line.
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