Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 295 takes place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. This card features a light heavyweight title fight between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira as the Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +462 at Bet365 Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Mackenzie Dern ML over Jessica Andrade (-200)
Mackenzie Dern comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-3. She is 8-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Angela Hill by unanimous decision back in May of this year. Dern is averaging 3.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. She is absorbing 4.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. Her grappling is decent, averaging 0.81 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. Dern has a takedown accuracy of 15%, and she has a takedown defense of 40%.
Dern is the favorite in this fight and looks to be worth a bet despite the high price. Both Dern and Jessica Andrade have been a little inconsistent, but Andrade has lost her last 3 fights in a row. Dern has better grappling in terms of her ability to attempt submissions, therefore backing Dern to win will be our play.
Benoit Saint Denis ML over Matt Frevola (-225)
Benoit Saint Denis comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-1. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Thiago Moises by KO/TKO back in September of this year. Saint Denis is averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 5.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling has been solid so far, averaging 4.72 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 36% and his takedown defense is 80%.
Saint Denis is a heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best option. He has the superior striking and grappling while also having gone 4-1 in his last 5 fights. For that reason, backing Saint Denis to win will be our play.
Steve Erceg vs Alessandro Costa – Fight to go the Distance – No (-120)
Steve Erceg is the clear favorite in the fight, which makes his money line too risky. Instead, we will look at this fight to end inside the distance. Alessandro Costa has seen 12 of his 16 career fights end inside the distance, which includes his last 3 fights in a row and 5 of his last 6. Erceg has seen 7 of his last 11 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 6 of his last 8 fights. Because both guys have a high finish rate in their careers, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Roosevelt Roberts – Fight to go the Distance – No (-240)
Mateusz Rebecki is one of the biggest favorites on this card, making a money line bet not worth it. Instead, we will be looking at this fight to end inside the distance. Rebecki has seen 16 of his 19 fights end inside the distance, while Roosevelt Roberts has seen 11 of his 15 fights do the same. With both fighters having a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
You can also read our UFC 295 Best Bets
