Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 3 wasn’t a great slate of college football on paper, but that’s why they play the games. We had some wild finishes, unlikely upsets across the Power 5 and Group of 5 and a couple of unexpected upset bids that nearly got there. In all, it was a weekend that served as a nice palette cleanser before we load up on the massive entree that is this Saturday’s slate.
With Week 3 in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get into the Week 4 slate with my weekly best bets column. I went 2-1 for the second straight week, including another 3-star winner with Washington, bringing me to 2-0 on the season on 3-star plays. Let’s keep that momentum going! This week’s slate could be one of the best we’ve had in years, and I’ve got a rare quartet of matchups where I see value in the number. Let’s take a look at my best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.
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Florida State Seminoles -1.5 over Clemson Tigers (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on September 18. Florida State -2 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The Seminoles were clearly sleepwalking through their game against Boston College in Week 3, so I wouldn’t read too much into that result. Jordan Travis was banged up a bit in that game, but coach Mike Norvell dispelled any notions that Travis wouldn’t be healthy and ready to go for this matchup. The FSU quarterback is at the helm of an offense that is 3rd in EPA per play and 9th in EPA per pass this season, thanks to a strong offensive line and a dynamic wide receiver duo of Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson on the outside. Even against a stout Clemson front seven, the Seminoles offense should still be the best unit on the field on Saturday.
The biggest concern I have with Clemson is the same one I’ve had for years now; the Tigers offense just isn’t that good. Clemson ranks 121st in the nation in explosiveness while sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik has an aDOT of just 6.3. The skill position talent at Clemson is also not even close to what the Tigers had in their heyday of the mid-late 2010s. In fact, the wide receivers have a drop rate of over 10%, which is a massive concern in a pass-first offense. So far it doesn’t appear that Garrett Riley has made much of a difference as the new offensive coordinator, as Clemson is 67th in EPA per pass, 78th in EPA per rush (CFB-Graphs) and has struggled mightily with finishing drives. Given the strength of this Florida State defensive front, it would not be wise for the Tigers to get behind the chains consistently, or Jared Verse and company are going to pin their ears back and blitz the QB, much like they did against LSU in Week 1.
Much like Texas against Alabama in Week 2 and last week’s Washington vs Michigan State matchup, this is a game that I’ve had circled going back to the middle of the summer. Sticking with my preseason predictions treated me well each of the last 2 weeks, and I have no problem going back to the well one more time in this massive ACC matchup.
Be sure to check out our full Florida State vs Clemson predictions
Ole Miss Rebels +7 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Two weeks ago, I faded Alabama against Texas and cashed that +7.5 ticket without much doubt. I’m going right back to fading the Crimson Tide this weekend against an Ole Miss team that I’m a bit higher on than the market. The Crimson Tide shuffled between Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson at quarterback and both were absolutely awful against South Florida, as Alabama finished with -0.52 EPA per dropback, an explosive play rate of just 3% and barely managed to get to 17 points. Jalen Milroe is back as the starting quarterback for this SEC opener, but he’s also struggled mightily throwing the ball in his first two games as the starter this season. It could be a long day for Nick Saban and company if those struggles continue.
I had serious questions about Ole Miss coming into the year, particularly at the quarterback position. Well, so far Jaxson Dart has dispelled those questions, improving his accuracy and downfield passing by leaps and bounds while still remaining an extremely dangerous runner with the football. The supporting cast is loaded, with Quinshon Judkins at RB and a pair of dynamic receivers in Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade. Lane Kiffin has the offense rolling, with Ole Miss sitting at 8th in EPA per play, 11th in yards per play and 19th in success rate (bcfToys). Conversely, Alabama isn’t even in the top 50 in any of those metrics and the Crimson Tide are 101st in passing success rate.
This is a situation where the line has moved significantly, but I still can’t get there with Alabama, especially considering the Tide’s offensive line and quarterback(s) have been nothing but uninspiring for 3 weeks. Ole Miss has a real shot to pull off the upset on Saturday, so let’s back the Rebels with the points.
Be sure to check out our full Ole Miss vs Alabama predictions
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish +3.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For my 3rd best bet on this week’s card, I’m taking another home underdog, this time with a Notre Dame team I was reluctant to back earlier in the season. However, the Irish have really shown me something with Sam Hartman at quarterback and I believe are in prime position to win their biggest game in years on Saturday.
Notre Dame hung with this same Ohio State team a season ago, despite not having a competent quarterback and the Buckeyes having CJ Stroud on their sideline at the Horseshoe. Now, the addition of Sam Hartman has clearly swung the advantage of the most important position on the field in Notre Dame’s favor. The Irish also have a terrific running game, led by their strong offensive line, so that should ease the pressure off Hartman against an improved Ohio State defense. Through 4 games as the Irish quarterback, Hartman is top 20 in PFF’s passing grade, adjusted completion percentage, and big-time throw percentage, and his offensive line has kept his jersey clean to this point. If that continues, there’s no reason Hartman can’t have great success on Saturday.
On the other side, this will also be the first true road game for Kyle McCord at QB, and I’m not convinced he’ll be able to handle the hostile environment and what will be a major step up in competition this weekend. Yes, Ohio State has the best wide receiver room in the country, but Notre Dame’s secondary has been elite to this point and that should remain the case in this one. In a game that I expect to come down to the final possession, I’ll gladly take over a field goal with the home team.
Be sure to check out our full NCAAF Week 4 picks for the biggest games on Saturday
Cincinnati Bearcats +14.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
My favorite situational spot of last week was Miami (OH) catching over 2 touchdowns against Cincinnati. It was clear the Bearcats were flying high after knocking off Pittsburgh as underdogs while also looking ahead to their first-ever Big 12 home game against Oklahoma. As it happens, I think that loss to an in-state rival as heavy favorites galvanized the Bearcats and I’d much rather play them as a home underdog than a favorite. This is also a slight fade of Oklahoma, who has looked impressive against Arkansas State and Tulsa this season, but also struggled at times en route to a fraudulent cover by the hook against SMU. The Sooners are in for their first real road test this season against a Bearcats team that will focus on controlling the tempo and keeping the ball away from Oklahoma’s offense.
The biggest concern for the Sooners has to be their offensive line, which hasn’t been great in pass-blocking despite playing the 108th-rated strength of schedule to this point (Sagarin). On the other side, Cincinnati’s defense has been solid and the Bearcats have an experienced Power 5 quarterback in Emory Jones who won’t be afraid of the moment. In a hostile and unfamiliar road environment, I’d expect Oklahoma to start slow and for Cincinnati to lean on its defense and run game to shorten the proceedings. Let’s back the Bearcats to keep things close in their Big 12 debut.
Be sure to check out our full Oklahoma vs Cincinnati predictions
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