Week 4 free NFL computer picks against the spread
The Pickswise supercomputer will give probabilities and projections for the main NFL betting markets (spread, total & Moneyline), best bets for spread, total, moneyline, and same game parlays. It also features prop bet probabilities for first & anytime touchdown scorer. Individual player projections for passing, rushing, receiving yards & touchdowns for betting and fantasy use.
For more information on how the supercomputer works and how it generates picks, scroll down to the bottom of this page.
Man vs. Machine
Each week of the NFL season, a Pickswise expert will go up against the Pickswise supercomputer to see who is a better handicapper – man or machine! The rules are simple, the top five picks against the spread every week. The supercomputer’s picks are ones that have the highest win probability.
We’re both coming off tough Week 3 picks, but the computer picks have made a solid start to the season at 9-5.
Pickswise Experts (6-8-1)
Pickswise Computer (9-5)
Where can I view this week’s computer picks against the spread?
View the computer picks in our individual game previews below or head over to our main NFL picks for week 4 page.
- Cardinals @ Panthers
- Ravens @ Washington
- Colts @ Bears
- Chargers @ Bucs
- Saints @ Lions
- Browns @ Cowboys
- Jaguars @ Bengals
- Giants @ Rams
- Seahawks @ Dolphins
- Bills @ Raiders
- Patriots @ Chiefs
- Eagles @ 49ers
- Falcons @ Packers
How are the pre-game win probabilities calculated?
The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities, which we use to run our event simulations.
Why do the win probabilities and predictions change over time?
The probabilities are dynamic in nature and get updated as new information becomes available. This includes but is not limited to team news, weather conditions, and moves in the betting market.
What does a ‘value bet’ mean?
A value bet is where we’ve identified that the probability of the event occurring is more likely than the listed sportsbook odds. Taking these bets gives you an increased chance of being a successful gambler.
How is the change in win probability calculated during a live game?
Live win probability is a statistical metric that projects the team’s likelihood of winning at any given point by simulating the remainder of the game. Based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation and the current state of the game, the model updates in real-time following every major event during the game.