Both 2-1, the Lions’ visit to Charlotte feels heavier than it would have in the recent past. In many ways the Panthers are clearly looking better, showing off an improved passing attack and more explosive offense in general. Through three weeks they are averaging 29.7 points and nearly 400 yards per game (392.7, to be exact). Bryce Young, although he still lacks solid, consistent protection from his front (they are 23rd in pressure-rate), is 1st in the NFL with 939 passing yards. For a fourth year QB who’s surely on his final “prove it" year, that’s one hell of a start.
Beneath the surface, Carolina still has some glaring issues. For starters, their backfield is very shallow with just Chuba Hubbard and AJ Dillon. Both are formidable complimentary backs; neither is meant to be the main event. Gaining just 97 total rushing yards per game, the Panthers choose to run at one of the lowest rates in the league (34.18%, 31st). Defensively, they’re the worst unit in the NFL against the run, allowing 5.7 yards per carry. On the bright side, they are getting to the opponent’s QB more often (sack-rate is 7.07%, 12th) and in general their pass-defense is above average (fifth in opponent yards per pass).
Failing to slow down their enemy’s run game could prove to be a massive issue on Sunday night. Detroit owns one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the NFL thanks to Jahmyr Gibbs and an above-average run-blocking line. Gibbs has only had one notable performance so far, a 156-yard showing against the Saints, but Carolina will present the worst front-seven he’s seen this month. He already has six touchdowns in three games.
The Lions’ pass defense is their weakness. Opponents are completing 69.4% of their passes for 326 yards per game, with 9 TDs against the Motown team. Geno Smith waltzed into Ford Field and went 31 of 37 (83.8%) for a 129.8 rating. On the bright side, only Minnesota has earned more sacks through three games (12).
If you believe in the Panthers, it's because you think they'll play at their best in a primetime spot. The reality is, Jared Goff and many on this Lions’ roster have experienced plenty of nerve-racking national spotlight games over the last few seasons. Bryce Young has not, nor have many of his colleagues. We also think Carolina’s defensive woes are too large to ignore. Unless the Panthers’ front-seven can get to Goff early and often, which is unlikely if the Lions’ run-game is in-rhythm, the visitors can pull away.
Lions vs Panthers prediction: Lions -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.
