MIN vs CHI Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/20/26

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears will meet at Soldier Field on Sunday in an NFC North divisional matchup. Both teams managed a victory in Week 1, but they came in differing fashions. The Vikings trailed the Packers 22-10 in the third quarter before scoring 29 unanswered points in a 39-22 win. Meanwhile, the Bears scored 59 points on the road against the Carolina Panthers, gaining 552 yards and converting 10-of-14 third downs in the process. 

Kyler Murray was knocked out of his Vikings debut and is in concussion protocol. At the time of writing, his status is questionable for this contest. Without him, the Bears would have an even bigger advantage at quarterback via Caleb Williams, as the Vikings will rely on either Carson Wentz or JJ McCarthy if Murray were to miss the game. Who knows, Wentz might have even won himself the job moving forward. 

Regardless of who is under center for the Vikings, it could be a long day if Minnesota’s offensive line underperforms again. That unit had just two pieces grade above replacement level against the Packers, while they allowed eight pressures and three sacks – though PFF considers one of Wentz’s sacks his fault and not the offensive line’s.

In theory, the Vikings have weapons to keep up with a lethal Chicago offense, but they currently don’t have the quarterback. I’m not exactly sold on the run defense yet, either – at least in this particular matchup. They may have looked strong against the Packers’ run game, but how good is that unit without Josh Jacobs? Chicago’s rushing attack will be a much bigger test and should find success, especially if Williams continues to show mobility like he did in Charlotte last weekend. That could come in handy against the aggressive pressure of Brian Flores’ defense, which is a unit Ben Johnson is very familiar with at this point considering he’s called plays against it twice a year since 2023.  

It could be a classic Week 2 overreaction, but it’s hard to sell what I just saw with the Bears on the road against the NFC South champions. Now at their beloved home with a finite amount of home openers remaining at Soldier Field, the Bears are primed for another statement win on Sunday behind an overpowering offense. 

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Bears -5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5 (-115). 

You can go one of two ways on totals in Bears games right now. Either you take a leap of faith and believe Ben Johnson when he says he wants to break the scoring record, or you fade the noise and take the under blindly. The latter doesn’t feel like a prudent play, but I see the argument for an under if Carson Wentz starts. Minnesota’s offensive line is already iffy enough; adding a statue of a quarterback behind it doesn’t exactly make things any better. Still, I can’t help but like points at the current price.

The Bears play with a decent amount of pace, and they’re explosive. Caleb Williams averaged 12.4 yards per completion last week, which could even improve against a Vikings secondary that just gave up 16.8 to Jordan Love – the second-highest mark in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson’s performance against the Colts. 

Chicago should be able to continue getting the ball down the field via chunk pass plays despite the aggression of Brian Flores’ defense, as Williams has had success against pressure in his career, tallying 21 big-time throws to just nine turnover-worthy plays in 2025. Going one step further, Williams has 28 big-time throws to just eight turnover-worthy plays specifically when blitzed during his first two NFL seasons, which Flores does as much as anyone. 

The uncomfortable part of this bet is relying on the Vikings for points. That might sound crazy after a 39-point performance last week, but they still were outgained 419-239 and averaged just 4.9 yards per pass against the Green Bay defense. Plus, let’s not let Chicago’s 59-point outburst overshadow the fact that they allowed 37 points, 478 total yards and 5.7 yards per rush attempt against the Panthers. 

If Coach Johnson is serious about breaking the scoring record, explosive plays and tempo are going to be part of the mix. As such, it’s hard not to like the current price on the over. 

Vikings vs Bears pick: Over 47.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48 (-120).