NYJ vs CHI Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

The Chicago Bears earned a massive win on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles via the arm of third-string quarterback Case Keenum. It was a magical night for the self-proclaimed “coach-player” (not to be confused with player-coach), as he was 24-of-34 for 247 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks while adding a score with his legs. The Bears are now 2-1 SU and ATS, and they will likely be without Caleb Williams in Week 4 again, especially with a big game at Green Bay looming in Week 5.

The Jets come into this contest losers of two straight, though both were by one score. They are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS this year, covering in each of their first two games, while missing the cover last week by a half-point. On the injury front, Garrett Wilson avoided injury and cleared concussion protocol, making him available this week. Running back Breece Hall is considered week-to-week with a quad injury, and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell is questionable after missing Week 3 with a finger injury. 

From an analytical perspective, the Jets haven’t been far off from the Bears this year. They are 11th in EPA per play and 14th in EPA per play allowed, while the Bears are eighth and 10th in those metrics, respectively. The Bears' run defense has been particularly inefficient, sitting 29th in EPA per rush per SumerSports and 31st in rush yards per carry allowed (5.1). Hall may be injured, but the Jets absolutely have running back depth with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. 

On the other side of the ball, the Jets are about middle-of-the-pack against the pass and the run, though they have been slightly better against the run thus far – which is good news for them without Williams under center for Chicago. Plus, the Jets have allowed just 4.8 yards per play through three games this year, which is tied for fourth in the NFL. That number spiked to six yards per play last week in Detroit against the Lions, arguably the first competent offense on New York’s schedule this year. 

Coming off a massive win on Monday night, this could be a flat spot for the Bears ahead of a divisional road game next week against the Packers. The Jets have been very competitive, are showing life offensively and have an extra day of rest here, so I’m taking the points with New York. 

Jets vs Bears prediction: Jets +3.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3 (-110). 

Typically, this would be a clash of styles, as Ben Johnson likes to play with pace. But with Caleb Williams out, the Bears played about 2.5 seconds slower per play in their win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, averaging about 32.1 seconds per play – which is coincidentally the exact average for the Jets through three games. For reference, the Jets are tied with the Vikings for third-slowest team in the NFL, and the Vikings just played to a score of 9-3 against the Bears – though weather was a factor in that contest. All this to say, with a total below the key number of 44, the pace of play is already factored in, as is the downgrade from Williams to Chicago's backups.

With Caleb still sidelined and Chicago struggling against the run, I’m expecting both the Bears and the Jets to deploy a run-heavy attack, which means moving clock throughout. I also expect multiple explosive plays from both of these teams. Both De’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are home-run hitters, while Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis have previously shown burst in backup roles behind Breece Hall.

Through the air, Geno Smith has five big-time throws already, which is tied for fifth in the league, and every Jets player with at least 10 targets has at least one explosive catch of at least 20 yards – and only one combined drop to boot. Meanwhile, whether it's Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum again, Johnson isn’t going to be scared to push the ball down the field to his dynamic wide receivers and tight ends. It’s over or pass for me on this total, even without Williams and Hall. 

Jets vs Bears lean: Over 43 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 44.