Cincinnati has been hit-or-miss defensively through the first three games. Twice the Bengals have given up at least 27 points, while also limiting the Texans to six points on the road. In their opening week against Tampa Bay, the Bengals forced four turnovers, but have posted one takeaway in the last two games. The Jaguars have allowed the fewest points through the first three weeks with 36, highlighted by a 35-6 rout of New England last Sunday.
Jacksonville and Cincinnati met in Week 2 last season as the Bengals held on for a 31-27 win on a 49.5 total. This Sunday’s matchup will be the first total of at least 50 points for the Jags since their 27-24 Wild Card loss to the Bills on a 51.5 total.
Both teams have done a solid job limiting yards to opposing running backs. Jacksonville is allowing 57.7 yards per game and Cincinnati is yielding 68.3 yards to running backs, which are both in the top 10 in that category. That means these teams will look to air it out as Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has picked things up since a 12-yard performance in Week 1. In the past two games, Chase compiled 75 yards at Houston and 98 yards against Pittsburgh.
The Jags are allowing the third-lowest defensive Pass EPA, while facing teams ranked 16th, 23rd, and 26th (Bengals ranked 15th). Although Jacksonville has yielded the fewest points in the NFL, this has an opportunity to be a high-scoring affair in Cincinnati.
Jaguars vs Bengals prediction: Over 51.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5.
