BAL vs DAL Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

The second international game of the season takes place in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil on Sunday in this interconference showdown between a pair of 1-1 squads. Baltimore rolled past Indianapolis in the season opener, but couldn’t hold a 14-3 lead in last Sunday’s 24-17 home setback to New Orleans.

The Cowboys bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Giants to beat the Commanders 37-20 last Sunday. Dallas is playing only its second game outside the country, with the last matchup coming in a 31-17 victory in the United Kingdom over Jacksonville in 2014.

The Ravens look to take advantage of Dallas’ defensive woes, as the Cowboys are 30th in EPA/Pass against the pass and 32nd in defensive success rate. Baltimore has fared well on the ground thanks to Derrick Henry, who is second in the league with 212 rushing yards. The Ravens are third in EPA/Rush, already facing the 27th-ranked Saints and 30th-ranked Colts (Dallas sits 24th in that category).

The Cowboys were 5-2 against the spread last season in the underdog role, with three of those covers coming at home. The Ravens are 2-7 in their past nine outings as a favorite. Baltimore WR Zay Flowers is day-to-day with a hamstring injury sustained in Week 1. Let’s grab the points with Dallas in this spot against Baltimore.

Ravens vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3 (-110).

For the most part, the NFL international games have tended to be lower-scoring contests. The Week 1 contest in Australia between the 49ers and Rams stayed under, while seven of the last eight international outings saw 50 or fewer combined points scored.

Dallas has hit the over in eight consecutive games dating back to last November, but the Cowboys allowed the fewest points in this stretch against Washington (20). The Cowboys own the top PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) in the league, while QB Dak Prescott ranks fifth in EPA/play. 

Baltimore’s defense has performed well in EPA/pass, ranking 10th and holding New Orleans QB to 252 passing yards after he threw for 410 in the opening week win at Detroit. The Cowboys have faced a pair of offenses ranking in the top half of the NFL in EPA/play, as Baltimore places fifth through two weeks. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is tied for the league lead in air yards per attempt at 10.9, while Prescott is 17th at 8.0.

Dallas’ rush defense has been chewed up through the first two games, as Baltimore may look to rely on Henry and use up the clock. There have been concerns about the field conditions in Brazil and with these international games leaning towards lower-scoring results, let’s ride that and take the under on Sunday.