JAX vs DEN Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/20/26

Denver was one win away from reaching the Super Bowl last season, but couldn’t produce any offense without injured QB Bo Nix against New England. Nix returned from ankle surgery and couldn’t get the Broncos’ offense going in their season-opening loss at Kansas City. The Broncos were held to 176 yards and turned the ball over twice in a 31-10 defeat to the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars coasted past the Browns, 34-10, as 9.5-point home favorites, behind four touchdown passes from Trevor Lawrence. Past New York’s Jaxson Dart and Chicago’s Caleb Williams, Lawrence posted the third-highest EPA in Week 1 among QBs at 18.6 and the highest completion percentage over expected at +22.33.

Last season, the Jaguars went into Denver and knocked off the Broncos, 34-20, as 2.5-point underdogs. Denver outgained Jacksonville by nearly 100 yards, but the Jags outscored the Broncos, 17-3, over the final 23 minutes after the game was tied at 17-17. Nix threw for 352 yards in the loss, as he faces a Jacksonville defense that allowed the sixth-lowest EPA/pass in Week 1 against Cleveland.

The Broncos lost once in eight regular-season home games last season, which came to Jacksonville. The Jags posted a solid 6-2 road mark in 2025, which included blowing a 29-10 lead in a loss at Houston. The expectation is Denver should bounce back, but Jacksonville is playing with plenty of confidence and is worth a strong look as a road underdog.

Jaguars vs Broncos prediction: Jaguars +2.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2 (-110).

Last season’s matchup in Denver produced 54 points on a 46.5 total, as the over hit before the fourth quarter started. The teams combined for 791 yards, while the Broncos turned the ball over twice in the loss. Jacksonville improved to 8-4 to the over in the past 12 games since last November, while averaging 32.1 points per game. In 2025, the Jaguars allowed the most pass attempts per game (37.2) along with the most completions (23.6), which ties into the high-scoring affairs.

Denver’s defense yielded the second-fewest yards per game last season at 278.2, even though it gave up the seventh-most pass attempts (34.4). The Browns couldn’t produce any offense in the opener, posting 120 yards in the first three quarters before compiling 152 yards in the fourth quarter during garbage time.

Jacksonville’s defense ranked 21st in the league in passing yards allowed per game last season, but drew a Cleveland squad that posted the second-fewest passing yards per contest in 2025.

Nix threw five more TD passes at home last season (15) than on the road, while putting up 600 more passing yards at home. Jacksonville has been able to put up points since the second half of last season, while Denver’s offense should put up a better performance at home after getting shut down at Kansas City.

Jaguars vs Broncos prediction: Over 45.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5 (-110).