ATL vs GB Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Thursday, 09/24/26

Every year it feels like the first few weeks of the NFL season provide one shocking result after another. In Week 2, projected top-tier programs like the Chargers and Bucs fell apart at home and both went 0-2, destroying many survivor contestants despite being positioned as big favorites (LAC was -6.5, TB was -8.5).

The Packers very nearly stumbled, too, forced to go into overtime against a resilient New York Jets’ squad that seemed intent on ruining their afternoon. Green Bay ultimately won by just three points in the extra period, furthering insights from the sharp betting community that New York was the sharp side all along (they opened +5.5 and closed +3). The Atlanta Falcons – they are another story altogether.

Analyzing the NFL before the season kicks off is never easy. Very few, if any, thought that the Falcons would be this despicable through two games. After watching Pittsburgh flop and flail at New England this past Sunday, Atlanta’s valiant effort against the Steelers in Week 1 doesn't seem as impressive.

In Week 2, the Falcons completely fell apart, mustering just three points against their rival Carolina Panthers and granting Bryce Young his first ATS victory as a favorite. Through two weeks, the Falcons have yet to reach the red zone, which is a simply wild statistic. Defensively, they completely capitulated last weekend, permitting Young and the Carolina offense to score 34 points and gain 340 yards. All but nine yards of that production came in the first three quarters when the margin was beyond repair. 

Kevin Stefanski has said that Michael Penix Jr. has a chance to play on Thursday Night Football. There is no arguing that Atlanta needs a change and needs something to improve immediately, starting with their quarterback situation.

Before the season started, we thought Cooper Rush would be as formidable as the other two options on the roster; needless to say, that has not been the case. Through two weeks, Rush is 22-39 for just 229 yards, four interceptions and just one touchdown. In overall offensive statistics like yards and points per game or per play, the Falcons are bottom-five or worse.

The good news for Atlanta is that Green Bay hasn't shown us much either. The Packers’ offensive line has looked very vulnerable, allowing seven sacks, while their rushing attack has only produced 129 total yards across two contests. One of their biggest concerns of the new season is that their front is injured, inexperienced, and analytics companies like Pro Football Focus rank their pass-protection as one of the worst in the NFL through two games.

The Falcons’ defense, although far from stellar so far, has some rankings that suggest they’re not as pitiful as one may think. For example, their 4.9 yards per play allowed rank eighth overall, and they rank top-10 in both opponent third and fourth-down conversions.

Coupled with an 0-2 start and following an embarrassing home loss, Atlanta probably can’t wait to get on the field again. We like taking Atlanta earlier in the game the most (perhaps first quarter or first half), and we can only choose their side as the more desperate team facing a very underwhelming opponent.

Falcons vs Packers prediction: Falcons +6.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

Unfortunately, we need to discuss the Atlanta Falcons’ offense again. The good news for ATL fans is that as we write this, the Falcons have made it official that they will start Michael Penix Jr. on Thursday night. That can’t be bad news simply because of how bad Cooper Rush has played. Somehow, avoiding the red zone altogether the last two weeks and throwing four interceptions (and just one touchdown) hasn’t exactly resulted in success. Atlanta ranks 32nd in points per game (8) and 31st in yards per play (4.2), largely because of poor quarterback play.

Bijan Robinson remains the most talented player on their team and one of the most dynamic in the NFL, but he got lost in their failures in Week 2, producing just 88 total yards. Even without Micah Parsons, the Green Bay defense has been better than most, ranking top five in opponent yards per game and top six in both yards per pass and yards per run allowed. In their first game at home, the Packers’ resistance should be as formidable as it's been all year, regardless of the Falcons’ QB change.

Whether this total eclipses the mark or not is more about the other side of the ball. Atlanta’s defense has, by most metrics, performed well below average. Against the pass, they’re particularly vulnerable. Bryce Young, a QB who’s been under as much scrutiny as any young starter, sliced and diced the Falcons’ secondary for 287 yards and three touchdowns before they relented in the fourth quarter. Frankly, we’re surprised they didn’t call for an early stoppage.

The good news for the Atlanta defense is that Jordan Love and the Packers’ air attack has yet to impress. Notably, Love ranks dead last in the NFL in completion percentage (52.11%), and he gets sacked on 8.97% of plays (25th). The Pack’s offensive line continues to be a major liability, and their rushing attack is only further hindered by the suspension of Josh Jacobs, who may not return to the league at this point. Green Bay also ranks dead last in total rushing yards, eking out just 64.5 per game.

In the recent past, these two teams would have produced a memorable contest with firepower from both offenses. The 2026 versions? We do not trust.

Falcons vs Packers prediction: Under 44.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115.