HOU vs IND Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

Houston and Indianapolis faced each other in the regular-season finale last year, resulting in a 38-30 home victory for the Texans. For anyone who needs help with math, that's 68 total points. Five of the last seven meetings between these two division rivals have produced at least 43 points, and one exception during this stretch was a 42-point affair. The bottom line is that defensive struggles are not the norm when these two foes collide, and I will roll with that trend. My Texans vs Colts prediction is Over 42.5.

Indy did not even have Daniel Jones when it pinned 30 on Houston in Week 18 of last season. Jones is back now and has been decent through two games. Of course, he won't be the focal point of the offense on Sunday. That distinction will belong to Jonathan Taylor, who has scored 10 touchdowns in 10 career matchups with the Texans. Meanwhile, Houston's defense has not resembled the juggernaut that was on display for the majority of 2025. The Texans have given up 56 points through two games.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

It's a borderline must-win situation for both 0-2 teams as the Houston Texans visit the AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts in Week 3 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. It is safe to say that Indianapolis was the far more impressive of the two teams in Week 2, as it pushed Kansas City to overtime on the road before falling 33-30. Houston got blown out at home by Cincinnati 20-6. As such, it is a bit surprising to see Indy catching a field goal in front of its home fans against a struggling opponent. My Texans vs Colts pick is for the home team to cover.

Houston receiver Nico Collins missed the last game with a hamstring injury and is currently questionable. Indy WR Alec Pierce is sidelined by a heel issue, but the Colts are better equipped to make up for deficiencies in the passing game because they have star RB Jonathan Taylor at their disposal. Taylor has already racked up 253 yards from scrimmage and four rushing touchdowns this season. Indianapolis went 0-2 in the head-to-head series last year, but both games were competitive -- a 20-16 loss at home and 38-30 setback on the road. The Colts averaged more yards per play than the Texans on both occasions, and they did not even have Jones in the season finale (Riley Leonard handled QB duties). With Jones back for this matchup and his team playing at home, we have all the ingredients for another close game. I would even sprinkle some on the money line.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Colts +3 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.