NE vs JAX Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

This is a matchup that could lend itself to points given the Jaguars penchant for explosive plays on offense. However, I actually think we'll see more methodical drives in this game, especially since New England should be looking to keep the ball on the ground and keep its defense off the field in this intense Florida heat and humidity for as long as possible. That lends itself well to an under, which corresponds with what we've seen from games involving the Patriots through the first two weeks.

And even though I expect the Jaguars to put up a decent number of points, they might have to be a bit more deliberate in their approach against a defense that will surely look to keep everything in front of them. Let's go with the under at the current number.

Patriots vs Jaguars prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

A significant showdown in the AFC highlights the Week 3 NFL slate, as the Patriots will take on the Jaguars in what could prove to be an important matchup for the AFC playoff picture down the road. Jacksonville is playing its final home game until Week 8 thanks to a few games overseas in the coming weeks, and I think the Jaguars hold some real advantages over their opponent in this one.

For starters, Jacksonville is pretty healthy heading into this game. The same can't be said for New England, as the Patriots have injuries all over the field on both sides of the ball. New England is missing players at safety, corner and on the defensive line, and that's not even the worst of it. The Patriots offense is already struggling mightily through the first two weeks, and things won't get any easier with their best offensive lineman set to miss this game, along with AJ Brown and potentially fullback Reggie Gilliam.

Drake Maye is not seeing the field well at the moment, and his numbers simply haven't been very good against higher-level competition. In fact, the North Carolina product has six consecutive games of posting a negative EPA per dropback, dating back to the postseason last year. Conversely, Trevor Lawrence is in the midst of an excellent run over his last 11 regular season games, and it sure doesn't hurt that Liam Coen is the much better offensive coach in this matchup. Look for Jacksonville to attack this Patriots defense by spreading the ball around to different targets, and this is one that could get out of hand if New England can't keep up.

Patriots vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3 (-105).