KC vs LV Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

It will be a massive showdown between undefeated teams in the AFC West when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon. Despite its 3-0 record, I'm not quite ready - not even close, in fact - to going all in on Las Vegas. As such, my Chiefs vs Raiders prediction is for the visitors to win and cover.

Kirk Cousins is playing solid football under center and is a big reason why head coach Klint Kubiak's team is much improved in his first year, but this is a tough matchup for Cousins and company. Kansas City ranks sixth in the NFL against the pass, third in yards per pass attempt allowed and second in opposing QB rating. If the Raiders' ground game with Ashton Jeanty does not get on track, it's going to be a rough afternoon for the home team.

The Chiefs are looking like a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball. Their offense might even be better than ever now that it boasts a star running back - reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III - to take some of the pressure off Patrick Mahomes. Walker has already rushed for 360 yards and has scored four total touchdowns. OT Josh Simmons (back) is questionable, but Kahlil Benson has played well in Simmons' absence. I just can't see the Raiders keeping up with the Chiefs' firepower, especially with a seemingly revitalized Travis Kelce making the passing game dynamic in support of Walker.

Chiefs vs Raiders prediction: Chiefs -4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5 (-110).

The Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. Last year's scores were 31-0 in favor of Kansas City and 14-12 in favor of Las Vegas. Their final meeting in the 2024 campaign resulted in a 19-17 KC victory. I'm not about to shy away from those trends, so my Chiefs vs Raiders prediction is Under 47.5. There is no denying that Las Vegas' offense has impressed so far, but the competition level has been unspectacular through three weeks. That changes in the form of Kansas City, which will provide QB Kirk Cousins with a real test. Cousins is an immobile 38-year-old who will likely be pressured early and often by DT Chris Jones and DE George Karlaftis.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders rank fifth in the NFL with 10 sacks, 2.5 by Malcolm Koonce and 1.5 by Maxx Crosby. That is good news in advance of a matchup with Patrick Mahomes, because defenses are dead if they give the three-time Super Bowl champion time to just sit in the pocket and go to work. I expect the Chiefs to score a decent amount of points, but it will likely be with sustained drives anchored by Kenneth Walker III and the running game. At least that will keep the clock moving.

Chiefs vs Raiders prediction: Under 47.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number or better.