MIA vs MIN Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

Minnesota is 3-0 and back at US Bank Stadium for the first time since the opener, while Miami is 0-3 and has lost every game by at least 14 points. The Dolphins fell 27-13 in Las Vegas, 35-13 in San Francisco and 24-10 at home to Kansas City, and they lost star RB De'Von Achane to a torn ACL against the Chiefs. Plus, their All-Pro center Aaron Brewer (hand) was limited in Thursday's practice.

Miami has scored just 36 points and three touchdowns all season, and it couldn't even cover as a 13-point home underdog last week.

The matchup up front is lopsided. Brian Flores' defense leads the NFL with 14 sacks, including six of Baker Mayfield last week, and it has allowed only three offensive touchdowns and 13.7 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, is the only team in the league without a sack. That means Kyler Murray should have time against a Dolphins defense allowing 28.7 points per game. Flores also will get a crack at the team that fired him as head coach. The Vikings are 3-0 ATS this season and 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games, while Miami is 0-3 ATS thus far.

The concern is Minnesota's offense, which ranks last in the NFL at 238.3 yards per game. Justin Jefferson (ankle) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but the Vikings have found other ways to score, from Myles Price's 86-yard punt return touchdown in Tampa to Will Reichard's 26 straight made field goals. Against an offense this limited, I'll lay the points.

Dolphins vs Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings -10.5 (-105) available at time of publishing, playable up to -11.

This total opened at 38.5 and hasn't budged - I think it's too high. The Vikings' offense has been stuck in neutral, averaging 238.3 total yards per game, and Murray went just 15-of-29 for 168 yards with a TD and an INT in his first full game back from a concussion. If Jefferson can't go, Jordan Addison, who caught a 41-yard touchdown last week, becomes the top target, while Aaron Jones has been held back in practice this week for rest after rushing for 203 yards on 52 carries.

Miami can't be counted on to push this number, either. Malik Willis has thrown just one touchdown pass in three games and was sacked nine times in the first two. The Dolphins' only touchdowns have come on a Willis scramble, a 77-yard catch by Ryan Miller and an Ollie Gordon II run. Now the offense loses Achane, and WRs Caleb Douglas (ankle) and Chris Bell (knee) are also on the injury report. That's a tough setup against a Vikings defense allowing opponents to complete just 51% of their passes.

The under is 8-2 in Minnesota's last 10 games, and both teams' most likely path to points involves long drives that end in field goals. Even indoors, I expect a game that stays in the low 30s.

Dolphins vs Vikings prediction: Under 38.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 37.5.