ATL vs NO Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Monday, 10/05/26

Atlanta enters Monday Night Football off a rare 11 days off and easily their best performance of the short NFL season. Bijan Robinson ran all over the Green Bay Packers on the Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football, complemented by the return of Michael Penix Jr. In total, Robinson was responsible for 213 total yards, with 194 of those on the ground. It took Penix a full half of football to get back in the swing of things but once he did, he was very effective.

Against a confused Green Bay defense without their star, Micah Parsons, Penix eventually sliced and diced the home team’s secondary, going 18-of-25 for 256 yards and over 10 yards per pass. An interception on their opening drive was quickly forgotten as Penix proved he should be the starter of his football team, showing command and control and spreading the ball to seven different receivers. He also immediately showed chemistry with Drake London, who caught nine balls for 194 yards.

Defensively the Falcons allowed decent yardage last Thursday night, but they were stellar at limiting Green Bay’s clumsy offense on third downs (6-15). They also allowed just 17 yards rushing. The Falcons were victimized in Week 2 against the Panthers but looked formidable on defense in Weeks 1 and 3; we tend to think that has more to do with their opposition. On Monday night they will face a Saints’ offense that’s blossoming before our eyes.

Week 3 presented an exciting matchup between the Raiders and Saints, and entering the fourth quarter, the home team was in control. Unfortunately the Saints fumbled the bag, literally and figuratively, committing four straight turnovers on four drives in the final 15 minutes, negating a five-point lead and ultimately losing 35-27 to an upstart Raiders’ program. From the first to third quarters, New Orleans largely looked like the better team, totaling 291 yards and posting 27 points, anchored by a clean performance from second-year QB, Tyler Shough.

Shough has had some very impressive moments through the first three weeks and he’s second in the league with 917 total passing yards. Offensively, the upside is there, and with a deep running back committee the Saints are a real threat in a lowly division.

Defensively they’re a little harder to figure out, mostly a young roster that’s middling against the pass and below average against the run (4.7 yards per carry allowed, 27th). That's a huge concern when battling Bijan, who is as talented and explosive as any back in the league.

Could the NFC South be fun again? We are bullish that the Monday night contest will provide plenty of entertainment. Since this division is wide open, both programs will be eager to take a leap and bring their records back to .500, and both offenses are playing at their best leading up to Week 4. When it’s too tough to call, the underdog has value.

Falcons vs Saints prediction: Falcons +2.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

The Falcons and Saints are each led by their offenses, groups that at least appear to be further along than their defensive colleagues through three games. Atlanta’s best defensive performances were against a Steelers’ offense that looked completely out of sync and last Thursday against the Packers, who have notable injuries on their offensive line and backfield. 

The Saints, who were previously without a true franchise QB before they gave Tyler Shough a chance, are now one of the most productive offenses. They are top-five in third-down conversion rate and fourth-down conversion rate, along with a very high touchdown rate in the red zone (81.82%, third). This is even more impressive considering their opponents; a Week 1 road trip to Detroit, then a road game at Baltimore, followed by the Raiders in Week 3. 

In short, the pairing of second-year head coach Kellen Moore, known for his offensive success at Dallas and Philadelphia prior, and the 27-year old Shough is presenting as a very solid duo, perhaps the future of Saints football for many years to come. Chris Olave is also a true #1 wideout (375 receiving yards, second overall), and tight end Juwan Johnson has been clutch (173 yards, three touchdowns). When rookie sensation Jordyn Tyson returns off the injured reserve, this group could be extremely dynamic. Along with a rushing attack that’s improving, we’re confident that Shough and company can put up points on an Atlanta resistance that bends and breaks often.

On the other side of the ball, it’s less clear what they can do through the air. Michael Penix Jr. made his first start of the season last Thursday and it mostly went well. After a rough start, he showed confidence in a new system under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Atlanta eventually ran Green Bay out of town, powered mostly by Bijan’s production. They gained a ridiculous 498 yards, 25 first downs, and dropped 35 on the Packers at Lambeau Field. We liked Atlanta and won our pick here on them last week, but we certainly didn’t think it would be total domination.

We can only assume that the Falcons offense will be far better with Penix behind center. The Saints, who rank 20th or worse in most defensive categories, will also be greatly challenged by Bijan Robinson and the talented skill-players that surround him. This total is hovering around a few key numbers, but since we trust in the Saints’ production and don’t love their matchup when Atlanta has the ball, we could only look at the over.

Falcons vs Saints prediction: Over 47.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.