LV vs NO Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

Can the Chargers be considered “that bad” or are the Raiders just “that good”? Well, I personally believe the Chargers have potential they haven’t realized yet, but I also believe the Raiders are “that good”. Their D shut down its first two opponents, is +2 in the turnover ratio, and is ranked #9 in total defense entering Week-3. They have an offense that is arguably as impressive as their defense and that has exceeded expectations Week 1 and Week 2, bringing their team to a 2-0 record. Another big question is: “If a team is surprisingly good through its first two games and beats the Super Bowl hopeful Ravens on their home turf, does it mean that they will continue to perform at that level?”

While the Saints seemingly have come out of nowhere, forcing the Lions to overtime in Week 1 and then surprised Baltimore in a come-from-behind victory the following week, I believe they have weaknesses that the Raiders can exploit when they meet in New Orleans. First, although they sit 1-1 and are coming off a huge win, they have a total defense ranking in the bottom third and are 27 of 32 in rushing defense. Tyler Shough leads the NFL with 662 passing yards and Chris Olave is second in the league with 268 receiving yards. However, it could be said that the duo is too reliant on one another - if an opposing team can shut down Olave and put consistent pressure on Shough, it would likely lead to a situation where there is nothing left in the proverbial bag of tricks.

Although I feel the Saints are one of the best kept secrets in the NFL to start the season, I think that Raiders need to be considered in that same category as well. Both teams have shown that they have a lot of talent and can win games, but the Raiders have shown they are just as tough as the Saints and have the numbers to prove it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright, so getting a field-goal’s worth of points at home is too great of a gift to turn down.

Saints vs Raiders prediction: Raiders +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120. 

The Raiders enter Sunday’s game a perfect 2-0, keeping both of their first two opponents to 14 points or less. They beat both teams by at least two scores and with a combined margin of 53-27. Arguably, their defense really showed up in both matches and the stats are there to prove it. After the first two games of the season, Las Vegas has the #11 passing defense, is ranked ninth in total defense, and has the #6 scoring defense in the league.

The Saints' ranking of 22nd in total defense doesn't fully reflect how impactful that unit has been. While their season opener ended in a high-scoring overtime, loss New Orleans erased a fourth-quarter deficit and lost by just one point. They showed that same resilience the following week against the Ravens, rallying from behind for the win in a game that totaled only 41 combined points. Despite facing top offenses in both contests, the Saints' defense made key plays when it mattered most.

When these two teams are mentioned together, many will expect a high-scoring game. I see the opposite. For the Raiders, the path to success is simple: pressure Shough, force him into quick decisions, and limit Olave's impact by rolling extra coverage his way. The Saints can follow a similar blueprint by disrupting Cousins and preventing Tucker from becoming a game-breaker. With both teams relying heavily on a few key playmakers and several of their recent games staying relatively low-scoring, I expect defenses to win the day. My projection falls somewhere in the 23-20 to 24-17 range, which would put this game comfortably under the total despite being competitive throughout.

Saints vs Raiders prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.