MIN vs NO Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

Minnesota is one of three 4-0 teams left in the NFL through four weeks, coming off a 15-10 victory over winless Miami last Sunday. The Vikings failed to cover as -9.5 favorites, marking their first ATS loss of the season. Minnesota heads to New Orleans to face a Saints squad looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Saints are coming off consecutive home defeats to the Raiders and Falcons, allowing 80 points in the process. The defensive EPA numbers for New Orleans are ugly, ranking 27th against the pass and 32nd against the rush, while posting the 32nd-ranked success rate.

The big question is if Minnesota can take advantage of this struggling New Orleans defense. The Vikings are last in the NFL in offensive success rate, while QB Kyler Murray sits above only Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield in EPA per play. However, Minnesota’s defense has been elite, ranking first in EPA per pass and second in EPA per rush. Since allowing 19 points to Green Bay in the first half of Week 1, the Vikings have yielded 32 points in the past 14 quarters.

New Orleans is 2-0 against the spread this season in the underdog role, but 0-2 ATS as a favorite. The Saints have covered seven straight games as an underdog dating back to last November. This is a good spot to back New Orleans off consecutive home losses and receiving points for the first time since Week 2.

Vikings vs Saints prediction: Saints +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

The Saints have been horrible defensively against the run this season, allowing the third-most rushing yards (591). Falcons star RB Bijan Robinson rushed for 145 yards in Monday’s 45-24 rout of New Orleans, as the Saints have given up the most points in the league (128). New Orleans has proven it can score points, putting up at least 24 points in all four games, while hitting the over three times.

Minnesota is an interesting case, owning a mediocre offense and a tremendous defense. The Vikings hope to get Pro Bowl WR Justin Jefferson back in the lineup after missing last Sunday’s win over Miami with an ankle injury.

Neither Kyler Murray nor Carson Wentz threw for more than 200 yards in any of the first three games for Minnesota. Murray posted a season-best 247 passing yards against the Dolphins last week, although he didn’t lead the Vikings to a single touchdown. Saints QB Tyler Shough is third in the NFL in passing yards with 1,203, highlighted by a 410-yard effort in their season-opening overtime loss at Detroit. The only QB to throw for more than 220 yards on Minnesota’s defense was Green Bay’s Jordan Love (387) in Week 1.

One of these offenses is strong going against a great defense, while one’s defense is miserable and faces a struggling offense. I think Minnesota can get its offense going, while the Saints may be able to get points after the Vikings faced the 28th and 32nd-ranked teams in EPA per pass the previous two weeks.

Vikings vs Saints prediction: Over 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.