ARI vs NYG Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

New York is 2-1, but the record hides how much this team has lost in the last two weeks. Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season with a knee injury, and star pass rusher Brian Burns tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 12-7 win over Tennessee. The Giants haven't scored an offensive touchdown since Dart went down, managing six points against the Rams and only four field goals against the Titans, with Jameis Winston throwing for just 118 yards. Arizona is 1-2, but Jacoby Brissett has completed 70% of his passes for 652 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, and the Cardinals hung 30 points on San Francisco last week.

The market has moved hard toward Arizona. This line opened with New York as a 2.5-point favorite and has flipped to Cardinals -2.5. I'm on the same side. Losing Burns leaves a Giants defense with just one sack in three games without its best pass rusher, which should give Brissett time to keep feeding Michael Wilson (11 catches for 89 yards and a score in Santa Clara) and TE Trey McBride. LT Andrew Thomas (groin) also missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, which is a problem against a Cardinals front that sacked Justin Herbert three times in Week 1.

There are risks. Arizona has given up 31 and 36 points in back-to-back losses and is just 5-9 ATS after a loss since last season started. But with the Giants starting a backup quarterback and missing their top pass rusher, I trust Brissett and rookie RB Jeremiyah Love, who ran for 90 yards on 21 carries last week, to do enough on the road.

Cardinals vs Giants prediction: Cardinals -2.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing, playable up to -3.

Neither offense moves the ball efficiently. Arizona and New York are 30th and 31st in yards per play, and the Giants have scored just 18 points over their last 2 games. New York has also shifted to a ball-control approach under John Harbaugh, leading the NFL in offensive time of possession. Cam Skattebo played a season-high 76.6% of the snaps last week and carried 20 times for 60 yards, and the Giants ran 33 times against Tennessee. That keeps the clock moving and limits possessions for both sides, and Arizona isn't built to make up for it, averaging just 303 yards per game.

The weather could help, too. There's a 55% chance of rain at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon with temperatures in the low 60s. The Under is 2-1 in both teams' games this season, and the Cardinals' 66-point shootout in San Francisco came against a 49ers offense far more explosive than anything New York can put on the field right now. Winston is also working with a banged-up supporting cast, as RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (knee) was limited Thursday and Thomas has yet to practice this week. I expect a field-goal-heavy game that settles in the low 40s at most.

Cardinals vs Giants prediction: Under 44.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 43.5.