CLE vs NYJ Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

The Browns sit atop the AFC North following three consecutive wins, while the Jets have dropped three straight games, all coming against NFC North foes. New York will be back at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, trying to halt not only its losing skid but also Cleveland’s hot streak. Browns QB Deshaun Watson was on his way to getting benched after Week 1, but has thrown five TD passes and been intercepted once during this three-game winning streak. Cleveland is the only division leader to be outscored in its first four games (95-81), as its three victories are by four points or fewer.

The Jets have not run the ball well through one month, ranking 27th in EPA per rush, but face a Cleveland defense that sits 25th in EPA per rush allowed. Cleveland is worse than New York in rushing, as Quinshon Judkins has been held below 53 rushing yards three times.

The Bears outgained the Jets, 34-7 in first downs and 492-157 in total yards last Sunday, as New York picked up 58 yards on its lone touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Cleveland is 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in the 'dog role since last December. The Jets posted an 0-2 ATS mark as a home favorite last season and aren’t worthy of backing when laying points against a Cleveland team playing with plenty of confidence.

Browns vs Jets prediction: Browns +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

Cleveland’s defense was torn apart in the 34-10 season-opening loss at Jacksonville, but gave up just 37 total points in the next two wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Browns allowed 10 points through three quarters against the Steelers in Week 4 before Pittsburgh scored a pair of TDs in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 24-24. Cleveland hit the game-winning field goal in the final seconds for the 27-24 victory, easily cashing its third over in four games. The Jets have been the opposite in the totals department, hitting three unders with the lone outlier coming in a 31-24 defeat at Detroit in Week 3 on a 49.5 total. 

New York is playing only its second home game of the season and blew a fourth-quarter lead in a 20-17 overtime defeat to Green Bay in Week 2 on a 44.5 total. The Jets’ defense sits 23rd in EPA per pass, coming off facing the sixth (Chicago) and fourth-ranked (Detroit) teams in this category. Cleveland enters as a top-15 passing offense when it comes to efficiency, which is an incredible jump after finishing 2025 last in the league.

New York QB Geno Smith went from his best game of the season at Detroit with 321 yards, three TDs and an 83.8% completion rate to only eight completions for 119 yards in a 23-12 loss at Chicago. Cleveland’s defense has done a solid job slowing down opposing QBs from an efficiency standpoint, ranking top-15 in the NFL, while limiting passing yards leader Bryce Young to a season-low 54.2% completion percentage. 

Browns vs Jets pick: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.5.