CIN vs PIT Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

The Cincinnati Bengals will face their second consecutive road game this week, which also happens to be their division opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Joe Burrow and company come into this game 2-0 following a win as a road underdog last week in Houston, where they held the Texans to just six points. It was ugly, as the Bengals were outgained by more than 100 yards and committed 12 penalties in the win. 

Speaking of ugly, Pittsburgh is 1-1 SU, but the Steelers haven’t been very impressive to the naked eye. The Week 1 game against Atlanta took years off any viewer’s life, while last week’s effort in Foxborough was somehow worse, tallying just three points and failing to gain 250 total yards. 

There are probably tons of trends that point to the Steelers as home ‘dogs in this spot, but all that data would have been from Mike Tomlin’s tenure. He’s now in the studio with NBC, so that historical data is about as relevant as the head-to-head metrics from when Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger were playing. As such, I have a hard time picking against Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense, paired with what appears to be a much-improved Bengals defense. Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense in terms of EPA per play is a concern, but I have to take that with a grain of salt considering their first game was against a quarterback who has no business being in the NFL anymore.

Burrow and the Bengals are in a different class than both the Falcons and Patriots offensively, and the line ahead of Burrow is playing much better now than in year’s past. Plus, Joe Cool is typically very good under pressure, which is critical against TJ Watt, while the Pittsburgh secondary has underperformed through two games. In fact, out of the top four pieces in the secondary, Jalen Ramsey is the only one that has held opposing pass-catchers under a 70% reception rate, though he’s only been targeted three times. That’s not a recipe for success against Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Don’t be surprised if the Bengals just pick on Asante Samuel Jr., who has surrendered over 100 yards already, including a 63-yard pass, and missed a third of his tackles. 

Bengals vs Steelers prediction: Bengals -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4 (-105).

I raved about Cincinnati’s offense in the point-spread writeup of this game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think this will be a high-scoring contest. In fact, the contrary is true. I don’t expect much from Pittsburgh’s offense, as this unit is league-worst in yards per play and third-worst in yards per point. It doesn’t help the Steelers or the aging Aaron Rodgers that the Bengals defense has improved this season, sitting top-10 in yards per play, yards per point and EPA per play, as well as top-12 in success rate. Boye Mafe and Dexter Lawrence have been huge difference-makers in their first seasons in Cincinnati, as the pair has combined for 20 pressures through two games. That’s not good news for Rodgers, who has faced the sixth-most pressures this season. 

Cincinnati is the better offense, but there are still concerns about this unit. The Bengals are outside the top 20 in yards per play and EPA per play according to SumerSports, and their success rate is closer than the league-worst Steelers than you’d think. Look for this to be your typical scrappy AFC North battle, won in low-scoring fashion.

Bengals vs Steelers pick: Under 42.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41 (-105).