IND vs PIT Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

Neither side appears built to spend much time punting. If the Colts are going to pull off the road upset as I predicted earlier, they'll likely need to move the ball consistently against a Steelers defense that has shown cracks in recent weeks. Indianapolis has averaged more than 25 points per game and possesses the balance to attack through both the run and pass, giving them multiple paths to offensive success.

Of course, Pittsburgh won't be short on opportunities either. Aaron Rodgers still has the weapons to capitalize on favorable matchups, and the Colts defense has surrendered 26 points per game while struggling to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks. Even if Indianapolis controls stretches of the game, expecting the Steelers to contribute on the scoreboard seems reasonable and likely.

Neither offense is flawless, which is why a shootout should never be assumed. Still, both teams have enough playmakers and enough defensive concerns to create scoring chances throughout the day. If the Colts perform anywhere close to the level required to cash their money line, Pittsburgh likely does its part as well.

Rather than a low-scoring grind, this projects as a competitive game where both teams have a realistic path into the mid-to-upper 20s. If and when that happens, the under looks less and less likely.

Colts vs Steelers prediction: Over 44.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 45 (-115).

The Colts are on a roll, while the Steelers have had theirs stolen. Indianapolis enters at 2-2 after back-to-back wins, including a 17-point trouncing of Washington in London. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh surrendered its spot tied atop the AFC North to a Cleveland team that has spent much of the season battling quarterback woes and a rash of injuries. The long trip home from London could be a factor, but the Colts should be ready and eager to build on their momentum by forging a statement win in the Steel City.

The Commanders lost Marcus Mariota against the Colts, making it easy for critics to argue that Indianapolis' success was simply the result of Washington's quarterback troubles. However, the Colts still scored 30 points, marking the second time in their last three games they've hit that exact total. Losing a starting quarterback mid-game can be demoralizing, but it doesn't explain why the defense surrendered three touchdowns and three field goals. In my opinion, the performance says a lot about their defense, and guys like Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren. I feel, however, it says the most about Daniel Jones, his resilience and how much he's beginning to resemble the brilliant version of himself from last season before the injury that cut it short.

Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers has shown flashes of his old self, and the Steelers are coming off a primetime loss to the Browns after a hard-fought, back-and-forth win over the Bengals. Their other victory was a far less impressive 20-13 defeat of a Falcons team that, at the time, fielded one of the league's most inefficient passing attacks. They were then blown out in New England, exposing deficiencies on both sides of the ball, and they didn't look good for most of their game last week. I'll take the young, cannon-armed quarterback who appears to be ascending over a former champion who currently has as many questions as answers. Give me the Colts, no points necessary.

Colts vs Steelers best bet: Indianapolis Colts ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.