LAC vs SEA Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

The Chargers have been one of the biggest disappointments through the first three weeks. What began as expectations to potentially win the AFC West, Los Angeles has yet to register a victory during this 0-3 start. Following home losses to the Cardinals and Raiders, the Lightning Bolts forced five Buffalo turnovers but still fell to the Bills 24-16. Los Angeles hits the road again, facing the defending champion Seahawks, who look to bounce back from a surprising 33-31 setback at Washington as 8.5-point favorites. Seattle allowed only 17 points in its first two wins, but gave up a season-high 31 points despite outgaining Washington 437-258. The Seahawks fell to 16-6 against the spread in the last 22 games as QB Sam Darnold threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in his return from a hip injury sustained in Week 1. Seattle owns a perfect 7-0 record against AFC opponents since the start of last season, including the 13-10 victory over New England in the opener.

The Chargers look to turn around their struggling offense, which ranks 27th in EPA/Pass and 25th in EPA/Rush, while Justin Herbert owns the fifth-lowest EPA/dropback among QBs with at least three starts. Seattle turned the ball over three times against Washington and allowed a defensive TD, and still had an opportunity to win. The Seahawks should get back in the win column while LA's season continues to spiral out of control.

Chargers vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -125.

Seattle’s defense ranks first in the NFL in EPA/Rush, along with posting the second-highest defensive success rate. The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than 277 yards in any of the first three games, while the Chargers have increased their yardage output from week to week.

Los Angeles forced only one turnover in its first two home defeats before compiling five takeaways in last Sunday’s loss at Buffalo. The Chargers are looking to bust the 16-point mark for the first time this season, while scoring the fourth-fewest points in the league.

Los Angeles is 3-0 to the Under and is riding an 8-1 Under run since the start of last December. Seattle cashed the Under in the first two weeks, while the Under of 40.5 never had a shot in last Sunday’s 33-31 defeat at Washington. In four games last season after allowing 24 or more points, the Seahawks gave up an average of 8.75 points per game.

Both these teams have struggled from an EPA/Rush standpoint (Seahawks 28th, Chargers 30th), so they will rely on the pass. However, Justin Herbert owns a quarterback rating of 73.4 and has yet to top the 226-passing-yard mark. The Chargers have scored 66 points in the last six games since last season and there’s no reason to think they will light it up against an elite Seattle defense.

Chargers vs Seahawks prediction: Under 42.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42 (-110).