SF vs SEA Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

These NFC West rivals played for the division title last season, with the Seahawks winning at San Francisco in Week 18. Two weeks later in the divisional playoffs, Seattle cruised to a 41-6 home victory on their way to the franchise’s second Super Bowl title.

The 49ers look for revenge while trying to remain undefeated after winning three of their first four games by double digits. San Francisco pulled away from Denver last Sunday, 24-14, to cash as 2.5-point home favorites, while QB Brock Purdy improved his TD-to-INT ratio to 11-1.

The Seahawks knocked off another AFC West team last week, holding off the winless Chargers, 30-23. It marked the third straight game that Seattle topped the 30-point mark after getting held to 13 points in their Super Bowl rematch against New England in Week 1.

The 49ers posted a total of 26 points in three matchups with the Seahawks last season, despite beating Seattle in the 2025 opener, 17-13. Purdy was intercepted four times against Seattle and was held without a TD pass in the final two losses. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold didn’t throw a TD against the 49ers until the playoff rout, but also wasn’t picked off in the three matchups.

Seattle’s defense continues to play at an outstanding level, ranking 7th in EPA/Pass and 4th in EPA/Rush. They will be tested by Purdy, who is the leader in the NFL in EPA/Pass along with a 61.9% success rate. The Seahawks have faced four offenses that rank 20th or worse in EPA/Pass and now face the top-ranked team in EPA/Pass.

The revenge angle is definitely there for San Francisco, as a win gives the 49ers a two-game edge over Seattle in a crucial matchup for playoff seeding. It may not necessarily happen, but I expect the 49ers to push the Seahawks all the way.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: 49ers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

San Francisco and Seattle easily finished under the total in both regular-season matchups in 2025, while the 41-6 playoff rout by the Seahawks barely went over the 44.5 total. Sunday’s total at Lumen Field sits at 45.5, which is the highest total the defending champions have seen this season.

Seattle hit the over in the last two games against the Commanders and Chargers, as the Seahawks’ offense has caught fire since a slow start in the season opener when QB Sam Darnold left early due to a hip injury. The 49ers scored 14 points in the fourth quarter against Denver last Sunday after getting held to 10 points in the opening three quarters. San Francisco enters Week 5 tied with Dallas, averaging the second-most points per game at 30.5, including a pair of 35+ point efforts against Miami and Arizona.

The Seahawks are still outstanding on the defensive side, but have given up 56 points in the last two games after yielding 17 points in the first two wins over the Patriots and Cardinals. San Francisco’s defense has allowed only one first-half TD this season, coming against its win over the Rams in Australia in Week 1.

San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is putting up tremendous numbers so far and is by far the best QB that Seattle’s defense has seen this season. Will Purdy light it up? Probably not, but he will move the ball for the Niners with all their offensive weapons.

San Francisco has compiled one poor defensive half, allowing 24 points to Arizona in a six-point Week 3 victory. This should be a grind-it-out performance between these division rivals with the winner not scoring more than 24 points.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: Under 46.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.