CLE vs TB Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/20/26

Cleveland makes its second straight trip to the Sunshine State following last Sunday’s embarrassing 34-10 setback at Jacksonville. The Browns trailed 24-0 at halftime and QB Deshaun Watson posted one of the worst EPA/dropbacks in Week 1 at -0.21.

Watson is starting again this week against a Tampa Bay squad that turned the ball over four times in last week's 33-27 setback at Cincinnati. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield was efficient by finishing 23-of-28 for 216 yards, but failed to throw a TD pass and lost a fumble that resulted in a Bengals defensive score. Mayfield posted the sixth-lowest EPA of any QB in Week 1 at -8.0, while Watson actually finished at -1.4.

Tampa Bay looks to snap a 10-game ATS slide, which dates back to Week 10 of last season. The Bucs have won two of their last 10 games, with both victories coming by two against Carolina and three against Arizona.

Cleveland closed last season 5-2 ATS in its final seven underdog opportunities before getting routed at Jacksonville. The Browns were the best team in 2025 at limiting opposing wide receivers' yardage at 1,862. Mayfield faces the team that drafted him for the first time since 2022 as a member of the Panthers.

Cleveland posted a humiliating effort in Week 1, while Tampa Bay dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of. In this spot, the public will be all over the Bucs to bounce back, but let’s go with the Browns here getting a shade over a touchdown on the road.

Browns vs Buccaneers prediction: Browns +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5 (-110).

Tampa Bay’s offense put its defense in tough spots in its Week 1 loss at Cincinnati. The four turnovers set up 24 of the Bengals’ 33 points, which is tough to stop with QB Joe Burrow and all his weapons to go to. On the flip side, one of Tampa Bay’s three TDs came on a defensive score, so that may be difficult to expect again. As long as the Bucs limit the turnovers, it won’t be easy for Deshaun Watson and the Browns to sustain long scoring drives.

Granted, I like Cleveland to cover the points on Sunday, but this still looks to be a low-scoring contest. The Bucs cashed the over of 50.5 points against the Bengals, but Cincinnati didn’t score a TD without a Tampa Bay turnover setting it up. Baker Mayfield posted the highest completion percentage among any starting QB in Week 1 at 82.1%, but his YPA was 7.7, which was actually lower than Watson (9.3).

Cleveland’s defense should put up a better effort after getting torched in the first half by Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who had an incredible 0.79 EPA/dropback (Green Bay’s Jordan Love led the league at 0.25 last season). The Bucs scored 20 or fewer points in three of their final four home contests of 2025, and another low-scoring contest beckons here.

Browns vs Bucs prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.