GB vs TB Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/04/26

This game will likely represent a massive contrast in styles. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers lead the league in seconds per play and are the only team under 26 seconds. Tampa, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 20, averaging more than 30 seconds in between plays. That number will likely increase with an undrafted rookie quarterback at the helm, and oddsmakers adjusted the total accordingly – which is why we see a number lower than 40 in that regard. 

I expect a relatively smooth night from the Packers offense here, but I’m not so sure about this Bucs offense with Jalon Daniels under center. Tampa was already dead last in EPA per play and 29th in success rate per SumerSports; I can’t imagine a rookie will help those numbers at all. The Bucs might have to be carried by their run game offensively, making them extremely one-dimensional against a Packers defense that is probably better against the run than they showed last week. For reference, the Vikings only averaged 3.1 yards per carry, and Green Bay held Breece Hall to just 29 yards and 1.8 yards per carry in Week 2. 

Neither offense has been efficient in the red zone. The Packers are 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (41.67%), while Tampa ranks 30th (30%). Combine those struggles with what will likely be a run-heavy attack from Tampa, and it’s enough to lean to the under. That said, I see a situation where the Packers score 28 or 31 points and almost single-handedly guide this game over the total, so I much prefer the side than the total in this one.

Packers vs Buccaneers prediction: Under 39.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5 (-110).

The Green Bay Packers haven’t looked themselves this year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS heading into Week 4, which brings forth a road trip to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers. Unfortunately for Tampa, Baker Mayfield will not play, so the offense will be handed to undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels from Kansas. 

If you don’t follow college football, Daniels was essentially the life of the Jayhawks football program since the pandemic. One of the most dynamic quarterbacks in school history when healthy, Daniels finished his final season with 22 passing touchdowns and just seven interceptions, and he can run too – accumulating more than 400 rushing yards in three different seasons with 23 total scores on the ground in his six-year career in Lawrence. 

While Daniels was a dynamic quarterback for a program that lacks much historical success, he still comes with some baggage. Don’t get me wrong, he was an asset in the Big 12, but he also came up short in a good bit of step-up games, and he had 30 turnover-worthy plays in his last two years of college. Ball security was a massive issue for him, as he had 33 total fumbles in his collegiate career – 18 in his last two seasons per PFF. Now, Daniels will have the pleasure of going against a pissed-off Packers team that was just run through by Bijan Robinson. Green Bay will also have the rest advantage here being that they played on Thursday night in Week 3. 

This is not an elite Packers team by any means. The defense is average, and the offense is probably even more average. However, facing a rookie quarterback with extra time to prepare should add confidence to the Packers' defense ahead of this game. Meanwhile, I expect Jordan Love will have a good performance here. This Bucs secondary has allowed multiple explosive catches in every game thus far, and it made Deshaun Watson look like a capable quarterback. Keep an eye on the injury report too, as linebackers Josiah Trotter and Rueben Bain Jr. missed last week and are uncertain for this Week 4 matchup, which could make the Bucs short-handed on both sides of the ball.

I’m going to side with the more certain thing here in the Packers given my expectation that Daniels makes some costly mistakes under center while Love picks apart the Bucs secondary.

Packers vs Buccaneers prediction: Packers -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4 (-115).