MIN vs TB Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 09/27/26

This total has already dipped from 43.5 to 42.5, and I still think there's value on the Under. Minnesota's first two games followed very different scripts, but the common thread is a defense that controls the game. Chicago managed just three points and 297 total yards in Week 2, and the Vikings have forced four takeaways through two weeks. Minnesota has also been one of the league's most reliable Under teams, with the Under cashing in eight of its last 10 games.

The Vikings' offense isn't built to blow this number up, either. Wentz and Murray have combined for just 294 passing yards over two games, and Minnesota scored only nine points in Chicago, with Will Reichard going 3-for-3 on field goals. Jordan Mason is on injured reserve with a fractured thumb, Jones is banged up, and Murray is coming off a concussion with just 11 snaps in this offense. I expect Kevin O'Connell to lean on his defense and play a low-risk game.

Vikings vs Buccaneers prediction: Under 42.5 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 42.

Minnesota heads into Week 3 at 2-0 despite getting almost nothing from its new starting quarterback. Kyler Murray lasted just 11 snaps in the opener before a concussion knocked him out, and Carson Wentz stepped in to erase a 22-10 third-quarter deficit against Green Bay with 29 unanswered points in a 39-22 win. A week later, the Vikings went into a rain-soaked Soldier Field as 4.5-point underdogs and ground out a 9-3 win over Chicago without scoring a touchdown. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 0-2 and staring at its first 0-3 start since 2014 after a 33-27 loss in Cincinnati and a 23-19 home loss to Cleveland as an 8.5-point favorite.

The matchup in the trenches is why I'm backing Minnesota. The Vikings are allowing just 12.5 points per game, their eight sacks are tied for the league lead, and they've sent extra rushers on roughly three-quarters of opponents' dropbacks. That's a nightmare setup for a Buccaneers offense that has allowed seven sacks and turned it over five times, including four lost fumbles in Cincinnati. Baker Mayfield has been efficient in spots, going 44-of-62 for 398 yards, but Tampa Bay has one passing touchdown in two games and has struggled to finish drives.

The market agrees. This line opened with Tampa Bay as a 1.5-point favorite and has flipped to Minnesota -1.5 since Murray cleared concussion protocol. Aaron Jones (knee) returning to practice on a limited basis Thursday is another good sign, and with Tampa Bay rookie LB Josiah Trotter (shoulder) and OLB Rueben Bain Jr. (groin) missing practice again Thursday, I'll lay the short number with the better team.

Vikings vs Buccaneers prediction: Vikings -1.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -2.5.